BTC's recent decline can't be entirely blamed on its own lack of strength.

The core issue boils down to two words: lack of funds. Stablecoins are the lifeblood of this market, yet from August to now, the 7-day average inflow of ERC-20 stablecoins into exchanges has been cut in half—from $158 billion down to $76 billion. This is no minor cold—it’s a direct blow to confidence. Looking at the 90-day average, it slid from $130 billion to $118 billion, confirming a long-term drought and a certain downward trend.

Without ammunition, don’t expect prices to hold firm. When BTC occasionally bounces? That’s not due to strong buying, but rather a pause in selling pressure. So don’t rely on news to spark a bull run—only when stablecoin capital flows back in will the market gain real momentum. Until then, BTC can only remain trapped in this liquidity lock, stuck in a tug-of-war that neither moves up nor down.

Let’s talk about NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio).

This indicator recently dropped to 0.39. It looks alarming at first glance, but actually still remains firmly in profit territory—most holders aren’t panicking, and their holdings are tightly held. Historical experience shows that such levels are never a sign of imminent collapse; rather, they resemble a window of opportunity for smart money to quietly accumulate.

That said, the current market is precisely at the bull-bear dividing line—awkward as can be. Until there's a clear trend reversal, be cautious when increasing positions, and always prioritize risk management—volatile markets can hit you unexpectedly at any moment. Looking back at previous cycles, when NUPL was in this "low but not panicked" zone, most of the time the market...