The recent market trend continues. Powell is playing the hawkish rate cut this time—saying easing but being tighter than anyone else. The market is tired of pretending and shows its true face directly.

The only thing left to discuss now is the expansion of the balance sheet on the 12th. Buying short-term bonds with 40 billion, a little liquidity to soothe the market, just to calm the emotions. But look at what the dot plot says? There’s only one interest rate cut window next year. Just one. So don’t hold out much hope for January and March. Want to wait for a rate cut? You’ll need to wait until the January meeting to see the trend.

There’s also a practical issue—Powell will be stepping down in May next year. What he’s doing now is, to be honest, just political theater at the end of his term. The real large-scale easing will depend on how the next Fed Chair acts.

So the current market is all about manipulation, volatility, and back-and-forth harvesting. The futures market dominates everything, and retail investors can’t even figure out the long or short direction. Those hoping to reduce positions near 98K can only wait and see. And those dreaming of bottoming out at 80K are just daydreaming about a second probe.

Even more concerning, the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates on December 19 is quite high. Once that happens, US stocks, forex, and the crypto market could all take another hit. As for the Christmas rally? By then, Europe and the US will be on holiday, liquidity will dry up, and the market will have no momentum to get lively.