Why did Bitcoin break below long-term support following the Fed's policy shift?

[ChainWen] The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut as expected, but the forward guidance suggests that future policies are full of uncertainties, and market pricing has not fully reflected this. Meanwhile, signals of worsening the labor market and the Fed chair’s ambiguous statements indicate that the macro environment has undergone a fundamental change since the beginning of this year.

What’s more noteworthy is the technical aspect. Bitcoin, since the start of a new bull market, has fallen below a key long-term trendline for the first time — which historically often correlates with market volatility around mid-term elections. Interestingly, even as the Fed pushes for balance sheet expansion, liquidity in the crypto market has become tight, with retail trading activity noticeably lacking. This suggests that political factors may have a greater influence on the market than investors expect.

In the current environment, tactical positioning and risk control are given significantly higher importance. Based on the market analysis at the end of October, a consolidation or even a prolonged bear market may last longer, and investors should prepare psychologically and in terms of positions accordingly.