What will SpaceX's IPO in 2026 bring? The risk of overvaluation is worth paying attention to

Question

【Block Rhythm】Elon Musk recently confirmed on social media that SpaceX plans to launch an IPO in 2026, which is now considered a certainty. The industry generally expects the listing valuation to possibly exceed $1.5 trillion, with the growth performance of Starlink and the progress of the Starship project being viewed as core support.

It sounds very appealing, but there’s a cautionary point: historically, large IPOs with sky-high valuations often deliver disappointing returns after going public. Valuations have already reflected many expectations, and subsequent stock price pressure is naturally significant.

From an industry chain perspective, if this IPO really materializes, it will definitely ignite investment enthusiasm for the aerospace industry and satellite internet concepts. But note — in the short term, the market is easily driven by expectations, and volatility can be amplified. The real test lies in whether valuations can adjust and whether profitability can keep up.

Therefore, rather than chasing high prices, it’s better to calmly observe the pace of valuation digestion and wait for actual performance to materialize, which significantly reduces risk. The story of 2026 may still be played out repeatedly.

GhostChainLoyalist · Accepted Answer

1.5 trillion? I really can't handle this valuation... Isn't it a lesson from history enough?

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Chasing the high is always for the leeks; let's wait and see the valuation return to reality.

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Elon Musk's tactics are so familiar—first hype expectations, then harvest. What about you?

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Starlink's growth is truly impressive, but the valuation is definitely inflated.

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Short-term, there will inevitably be sharp rises and falls. I prefer to stand on the sidelines and watch the show.

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How many people got caught holding at a high price after this IPO... haha.

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Instead of chasing hot trends, it's better to wait for performance to materialize. I'll keep a backup plan.

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Why did so few people make money after the sky-high IPO? Can this time be different?

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Valuation digestion takes time; short-term traders are bound to suffer losses.

PuzzledScholar · Answer

1.5 trillion? Are you crazy? This valuation has already told the story for the next ten years. Going public is the peak. I bet five dollars it will break the IPO price.

SneakyFlashloan · Answer

1.5 trillion? Nonsense, this valuation already includes the dreams for the next ten years. Going public is just the beginning for the bagholders.

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Elon Musk is back to cut the leeks. No matter how impressive Starlink is, the valuation has to materialize. Paper wealth is ultimately just air.

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Wait, there's a problem with this logic. Starlink indeed makes money, but this valuation... I think it will break the IPO price.

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Oh my, it's the same old story. Large IPOs = a feast for the bagholders. I'll wait for a 30% drop before considering it.

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Really? 1.5 trillion? Then what is Tesla's market cap? This valuation is crazy.

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Chasing high is a death sentence. I'm just here to watch the fun and not invest. This time, the media hype is so strong that it's actually a warning sign.

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I admit Starlink can make money, but this number... it's a bit outrageous. It's high time to wake up.

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Don't be fooled by the hype, everyone. Pumping before IPO = collapse after IPO. That's what history teaches us.

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I just want to know when Starship will be truly commercial. Otherwise, this valuation is just a castle in the air.

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Another big company trying to cut a piece. Traders have already started positioning, haha.

FortuneTeller42 · Answer

15 trillion valuation? Wake up, this is a trap set for retail investors. History has proven that chasing highs doesn't yield good results.

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Elon Musk's choice of IPO timing is perfect; he wants to capitalize at the peak of popularity.

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No matter how fast Starlink grows, it can't change the difficult profitability situation of SpaceX. The price has already been driven crazy.

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Don't be fooled by the space concept. Wait until the stock price stabilizes. Those entering now are just rookies preparing for losses.

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The real opportunity comes after the shares break below the issue price, not during the issuance. How can some people still not understand this?

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Instead of obsessing over valuation, it's better to see when Starship truly commercializes. That's the real test.

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2026 is far away. Talking about this now is a bit too premature unless you want to play short-term profits by cutting losses.

SatsStacking · Answer

1.5 trillion? That number sounds unbelievable. Historically, such sky-high valuations tend to crash after going public, and most of the late buyers are retail investors.

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Can Starlink support this valuation? I'm a bit skeptical... As for Starship, we still need to see how it lands.

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I understand short-term hype around concepts, but where's the real profit? It feels like waiting to be cut.

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Instead of following the trend, it's better to wait until valuations return to rationality before entering. That's the right approach.

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Another Elon Musk story will get the market excited for a couple of years, then reality will slap us in the face.

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Starlink's growth is really fast, but to sustain this valuation of 1.5 trillion? I think it's a bit of a stretch.