#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 Ten Years of Trader Blood and Tears: From Liquidation to Stable Profits📊

Watching the account drop from hundreds of thousands to just double digits, I finally understood: liquidation is never the market’s fault; it’s entirely self-inflicted.

**Lesson 1: Leverage is really not the culprit**

Many people get scared off futures trading at 100x leverage. But that’s a false premise. You can still live well with 100x leverage; it all depends on your position size.

The actual risk calculation is simple:
Leverage × Position Size Percentage = Actual Risk

Using 1% of capital with 100x leverage, the risk equals a full spot position. Conversely, holding a full spot position also equates to 1x leverage. That’s why veteran traders aren’t afraid of high leverage—they simply don’t need it. The critical point is position sizing; leverage is just a distraction.

**Lesson 2: Stop-loss is not quitting, it’s lifesaving**

Each trade’s loss must be controlled within 2% of your capital—that’s the iron rule.

Why 2%? Simple math: 50 consecutive losses of 2% each leave 60% of your capital. But if one trade loses 10%, it’s like losing all the gains from the previous 5 trades. That’s why professional traders seem “timid”—they’re betting on probabilities, not on individual trades.

**Lesson 3: Position rolling and all-in are two different things**

Start with 50,000, using 10% for the first position (5,000). If you make 10%, that’s a 500 profit. Then, add that 500 profit to increase your position—this is rolling. This way, the safety margin increases by about 30%, not risk doubling.

But most people’s “rolling” is actually all-in—putting the entire capital on the line to gamble for a turnaround. This method has a 100% death rate.

**Lesson 4: Institutional risk control formula**

Here’s how professional traders calculate risk exposure:

Maximum position = (Capital × 2%) / (Stop-loss range × Leverage)

Example: 50,000 capital, planning a 2% stop-loss, with 10x leverage. You can only open a position of 5,000. Calculations: 5,000 ÷ 10 = 500 (base capital) corresponding to a 5,000 nominal exposure.

This way, even if you get liquidated, you won’t die because the maximum single-loss is 2%, and you’ve controlled overall exposure.

**Lesson 5: Taking profit is not greed; it’s a system**

Don’t expect to double your position in one trade. Staggered profit-taking is the key:

When making 20%, close 1/3 of your position—lock in gains.
When making 50%, close another 1/3.
The remaining 1/3 sets a trailing stop; hold until the 5-day moving average is broken, then exit.

Even if the market reverses later, you’ve already secured the main profits. This also eases psychological pressure.

**Lesson 6: Mathematical discipline beats everyone**

Many think trading depends on intuition and luck. Wrong.

Expected value = (Win rate × Single trade profit) - (Loss rate × Single trade loss)

As long as you keep stop-loss at 2% and take-profit at 20%, even with a win rate of only 34%, your expected value remains positive. This is pure math, not a motivational pep talk.

A few professional traders I know can achieve 400% annualized returns by following this approach—there are no secrets; just repeatedly execute this mathematical model.

**The three iron rules at the end**

✓ Single-loss ceiling: 2% of capital
✓ Annual trading limit: 20 trades (not necessarily 20 trades per year, but high-quality active trades within active periods)
✓ Profit-to-loss ratio minimum: 3:1 (earnings should be at least three times losses)
✓ Cash position: Spend about 70% of the time waiting for opportunities, only actively trading 30% of the time

People who get liquidated are usually gambling 70% of the time and waiting 30%. Flip that, and you become a trader instead of a gambler.