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2025 has given us a lesson.
When I break down the data, the real bull market window should actually be in 2026.
According to conventional logic, after the halving, we should enter a bull market phase. But the chart performance is completely off—Bitcoin stalls, Ethereum shows no movement, and Solana is directly cut in half.
I delved into macroeconomic factors and re-analyzed the entire cycle with on-chain data. I found that the so-called "halving bull market" label might have been applied too early. The actual funding environment and market sentiment are not yet in place.
This doesn't mean there are no opportunities in 2025, but from a historical cycle perspective, the main upward wave might still need to wait a bit longer. The market needs more time to digest the current situation.