ETH Market Turmoil: A Market Storm Amid On-Chain Security Incidents and Macro Policy Double Shock

🚀 Event Review

Recently, the ETH market experienced rare and intense volatility. On the news front, expectations of continued rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve increased, economic data was delayed, and policy uncertainties continued to dampen market sentiment; meanwhile, on-chain security incidents occurred frequently—such as the ZEROBASE frontend being hacked, leading users to authorize malicious transactions and resulting in the theft of some USDT funds. Additionally, large whale accounts (like “Maji Dage” and others) faced forced liquidation of long positions, causing panic to spread rapidly. Many investors reduced their holdings and adopted a wait-and-see approach, directly driving ETH prices to plummet sharply in a short period.

⏱️ Timeline

22:53: Market learns that high-ranking officials expect possible continued rate cuts in 2026, which exacerbates liquidity tightening and panic sentiment.

22:59: On-chain security incident reported, ZEROBASE frontend hacked, exposing some user funds and raising concerns over on-chain security.

23:14: Officials further signal tightening policies, deepening market uncertainty about the macro environment.

23:16: ETH price breaks through the $3200 mark, market begins to focus on asset pressure signals.

23:20: ETH price drops sharply from about $3207 to $3131 within 15 minutes, a decline of 2.40%, panic selling intensifies.

23:41: Rumors emerge that some ETH whales’ long positions are close to forced liquidation, increasing selling pressure suddenly.

23:55: More large ETH long positions are liquidated in succession, shaking market confidence further.

00:21: Amid continued volatility, ETH price further declines from about $3074 to $3041, a drop of approximately 1.06%.

00:22: Market sentiment briefly stabilizes; ETH price slightly rebounds to $3049.37, volatility eases.

🔍 Cause Analysis

Macroeconomic Policy Adjustments and Liquidity Tightening: Expectations of continuous rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, delays in key economic data, and ambiguous statements from high-level officials about future interest rates have caused investors to lose confidence in global liquidity. Funds flow out of risk assets, increasing downward pressure on cryptocurrencies like ETH.

On-chain Security Incidents and Whale Liquidation Effects: Recently, a series of on-chain security breaches have occurred, such as the ZEROBASE frontend attack, raising doubts about on-chain asset protection. Meanwhile, whale accounts with high leverage faced liquidations, triggering chain reactions. Panic selling swept through the market instantly. These two factors combined directly pushed ETH prices to lows.

📊 Technical Analysis

This section analyzes the ETH/USDT Binance USDT perpetual contract 45-minute K-line data:

Bollinger Bands: The market price broke below the squeezed Bollinger Bands and moved along the lower band, strongly signaling a bearish trend.

KDJ Indicator: Showing clear divergence, with diminishing momentum, indicating market fatigue.

OBV Indicator: Continually falling below previous lows, indicating increasing selling pressure.

Unusual Trading Volume: During the price decline, trading volume surged by 423.40%, indicating significant panic selling; current volume is notably higher than recent average, reflecting abnormal market activity.

K-line Patterns and Moving Averages: Clear Bearish Three Soldiers pattern (consecutive downward candles with closing prices setting new lows), MA5, MA10, MA20 in a bearish alignment, MACD histogram continues to decline; although RSI is in oversold territory suggesting a potential short-term technical rebound, the overall downward trend remains dominant.

🔮 Market Outlook

Under the influence of multiple factors, the current ETH market remains uncertain. Investors should focus on the following aspects:

Macro Policy Dynamics: The Federal Reserve’s policy direction and the release of key economic data will directly impact market liquidity and investor sentiment.

On-chain Risk Monitoring: Frequent security incidents in the crypto ecosystem mean that if similar vulnerabilities or hacker attacks occur again, market panic could be reignited.

Whale Movements and Institutional Positions: Changes in whale holdings and forced liquidations serve as important market sentiment indicators. Any further liquidation news could trigger larger fluctuations.

Technical Indicator Monitoring: Although RSI indicates oversold conditions and a short-term rebound is possible, the overall technical outlook remains bearish. Whether key support levels hold will be crucial in determining if the market continues to decline.

Overall, amid macro policy uncertainties and on-chain security risks, ETH may continue to consolidate in the short term. Investors are advised to remain cautious, strictly control positions, monitor key support levels and policy news, implement risk management, and wait for market volatility to stabilize before further deployment.

📌 Conclusion

ETH’s recent sharp fluctuations are the result of multiple factors fermenting together. Macro expectations of rate cuts and liquidity tightening, combined with on-chain security incidents and whale liquidations, have caused market sentiment to become fragile in an instant. Although some oversold signals in technicals may trigger short-term rebounds, the downward trend still dominates. Investors should closely monitor policy developments and on-chain dynamics, adjust positions reasonably, guard against sudden risks, and wait for the market storm to pass before making rational decisions.