Bitcoin's short-term holders (STHs) have demonstrated resilience despite the cryptocurrency's negative year-to-date (YTD) performance and its struggle to surpass the $100,000 mark. Throughout 2025, STHs have managed to log profits for 66% of the year, even as Bitcoin traded below its yearly opening price. The STH realized price at $81,000 has served as a pivotal sentiment marker, delineating phases of panic and recovery. Unrealized losses have narrowed from -28% to -12%, indicating a reduction in capitulation.

Bitcoin's price volatility in 2025 can be attributed to the behavior of the 1–3 month STH cohort. The cryptocurrency's price has frequently interacted with its realized price, resulting in alternating periods of net-unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) profitability and losses. Early in the year, Bitcoin remained above this cost basis for nearly two months, providing STHs with sustained profits. However, a shift in February and March saw prices dip below the cohort's realized price, leading to one of the year's longest stretches of losses.