#数字资产生态回暖 $BTC $ETH $XRP

**Full Analysis of the Federal Reserve's December Meeting: A Turning Point from Tightening to Neutral**

At the December FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve officially announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%. This marks the third consecutive rate cut of the year, with a total reduction of 75 basis points—a significant adjustment.

The meeting results reflect genuine internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve. The 9:3 voting outcome set a six-year record for the most dissenting votes. Minority opinions included one member advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while two others argued for a pause in rate cuts. Behind these divergent views is a debate between weakening employment data and still-incomplete inflation control.

**Rate Cut Pace Slows Down**

The dot plot outlook is not optimistic. The Fed only expects one rate cut in 2026 (median projection), with another in 2027. In other words, the aggressive rate-cut cycle has ended, and future steps will slow significantly, with interest rates gradually approaching the so-called neutral rate.

**Subtle Shift in Liquidity Policies**

Quantitative tightening (QT) officially ended on December 1, with dollar reserves reaching a "sufficient" level. Starting from December, the Fed launched short-term Treasury purchases with a monthly scale of about $40 billion. It’s important to note that this is not traditional quantitative easing, but it effectively eases previous tightening pressures and releases moderate liquidity support to the market.

**Powell’s "Hawkish Rate Cut" Posture**

Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasized that rates are close to the neutral level, and future policy adjustments will heavily depend on economic data performance. This is a cautious, data-driven approach—appearing mild, yet maintaining ample flexibility.

**Market Optimism Short-Term, Skeptical Mid-Term**

Following the announcement, risk assets (stocks, precious metals) experienced short-term gains. However, the easing expectations in 2026 are not as optimistic as many anticipated, and the dollar could continue to strengthen. The core logic is: although the tightening cycle has ended, genuine easing is still far off.

Overall, the Federal Reserve is transitioning from a tightening mode to a neutral stance, balancing concerns over further employment deterioration with vigilance against inflation rebound. For the crypto market, this signifies a complex new phase that is neither dominated by sustained high interest rates nor by flooding liquidity—it is a more nuanced, data-sensitive stage.