Is the threat of quantum computing overstated? a16z study suggests short-term risks are not urgent

Question

【币界】量子计算真的会立即威胁加密货币吗？未必。a16z最近的研究给出了一个相对乐观的答案。

根据这份研究，真正具备破解能力的量子计算机在未来十年内出现的概率其实很低。换句话说，我们现在不需要为了防范一个远在天边的威胁而仓促应对。

那当下应该关注什么？研究建议把精力放在现有系统的漏洞修复上。这才是更紧迫、更现实的问题。

至于区块链数字签名的迁移方案，也不用急着上马。这类大规模系统升级涉及高昂成本，如果仓促推进可能得不偿失。更明智的做法是基于长期规划，稳妥地推进技术演进。

GasFeeSurvivor · Accepted Answer

Is the probability very low within ten years? That means it’s still possible... a16z's analysis this time is a cautious approach; after all, vulnerabilities can never be fully fixed, and quantum threats are just a backup plan.

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Honestly, I’m just worried that one day quantum computing might suddenly be developed, and at that point, changing the signature scheme will be truly embarrassing.

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Are we being overly optimistic? Technological development always progresses faster than expected.

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Isn't this just another way of saying "no need to rush"? Anyway, it can be fudged in the short term.

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Hmm... Giving money to the system to patch leaks is cheaper than migration; I understand this logic.

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If quantum really comes, we’ll deal with it then. After all, we’re all going to die.

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a16z loves to say these fence-sitting words, able to attack or defend as needed.

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So now no one is making countermeasures, huh? Waiting for the wind to come?

DeFiDoctor · Answer

The consultation records show that this wave of quantum anxiety is actually overdiagnosed. With such a low probability over ten years, it's unnecessary to worry excessively. What truly needs to be addressed are the bunch of code vulnerabilities right under our noses.

RektCoaster · Answer

Haha, another "No need to panic" report from a16z. They really know how to reassure people.

Quantum computers won't break within ten years? Then I can safely stockpile coins now.

Instead of doing major upgrades, why not fix the bugs in the exchanges first? It's outrageous that people are being robbed every day.

Really, everyone is hyping up the quantum threat, but the real trouble has already been right in front of us.

I've heard too many times about long-term planning... but in the end, it's just rushed implementation.

Steady progress sounds good, but we'll see if anyone actually does it.

NotAFinancialAdvice · Answer

The probability of quantum cracking within ten years is low? Then we should still be concerned about those close-to-home things.

TokenRationEater · Answer

Quantum computing has long been overhyped. a16z's research states it well: there’s really no probability within ten years. Instead of worrying blindly, it's better to patch the current vulnerabilities first.

In fact, no one wants to admit that the current threats mainly come from low-level issues like wallet management and private key storage.

This time, a16z is being rational—no need to rush to upgrade; the costs are too outrageous. Let us take our time and proceed slowly.

We’ll talk about the quantum threat when it actually arrives. Right now, wasting effort on it might cause more problems.

Honestly, compared to quantum computing, I’m more worried about a certain exchange getting hacked.

This logic makes sense—long-term concerns are less urgent than immediate worries.