Do you remember the crash in March? When the Bank of Japan moved, Bitcoin plummeted from 65,000 to 50,000 in an instant, and the entire market suffered along. Now, the central bank is about to raise interest rates again—will history repeat itself?

Honestly, this market sentiment is completely different this time. Panic is absent, replaced by a strange calm — investors seem to have already understood this routine.

Why is that? Two core reasons support this.

**First, expectations have long been digested.** Japanese government bond yields have been rising steadily this year, and "the central bank will continue to hike rates" has become a market consensus. Institutional investors' yen long positions are already quite large. In this situation, when the good news runs out, it’s hard to generate big waves. The market has already laid this card on the table.

**Second, and most importantly — the Federal Reserve’s stance determines the overall picture.** The last time the Bank of Japan raised rates, the Fed was still aggressively tightening liquidity, and global liquidity was being drained. But now, the situation has reversed: the Fed has started easing and cutting rates. The biggest source of global liquidity is shifting toward easing, enough to offset Japan’s tightening effects. The macro shock index has actually fallen significantly.

So, what’s the focus this time?

Next Friday’s rate hike to 0.75% is no surprise; all eyes are on the guidance for the "neutral interest rate." The Bank of Japan internally believes rates need to reach 0.75% or even above 1% to be normal levels. If signals indicate more room for hikes, medium to long-term pressure could mount; if the tone is cautious, it means the current bearish wave might be exhausted.

In simple terms, rate hikes are certain. But the market has already armored itself. The current narrative is dominated by "Fed pivot" and "capital inflows into bulk trading," and a well-anticipated central bank adjustment is unlikely to independently rewrite the bull market pattern.

What are your thoughts on this round of the market?