Weekly Review

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as scheduled and signaled a dovish stance, but the AI sector faced pressure combined with US debt supply and sticky inflation. The market showed significant divergence, with the 10-year US Treasury yield down about 5 basis points for the week, while stock and bond performances diverged.

Key Events Next Week (Beijing Time)

1. Officials' speeches: Monday 22:30 Milan speech; 23:30 Williams (permanent voting member) on economic outlook; Thursday 01:30 Bostic (2027 voting member) comments, focusing on inflation judgment and rate cut pace, influencing interest rate and dollar expectations.
2. Key Data: Thursday 21:30 US November CPI (expected 3%, above the 2% target), initial jobless claims; Friday 23:00 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, one-year inflation expectations final.

Core Impact Logic

- November CPI is a key turning point for the dollar: below expectations confirms the rationale for rate cuts, pressuring the dollar downward; above expectations or a reversal of dollar weakness.
- If officials' speeches lean hawkish, it will boost US bond yields and the dollar, suppressing growth stocks; if dovish, the opposite, with initial claims and consumer data helping to validate economic resilience and inflation stickiness. #Gate11月透明度报告出炉