The sideways pattern remains unbroken; the outlook for high-level longs remains unchanged

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and Bitcoin surged but failed to break above the 95,000 level, directly confirming that the rebound over the past two weeks has not opened up upward space.

Looking back at November 28, Bitcoin surged to 93,100, and after more than ten days, the high only reached 94,600. If a trend-based strong rebound were to occur, it should break through 98,000. Currently, the sideways pattern remains unchanged, and the probability of a four-hour decline continues to increase.

Many believe that 80,600 is a short-term bottom, but from a moving average perspective, confirmation requires a complete four-hour decline. If this decline does not break below 80,600 and a daily rebounding double-buy signal appears, the daily rebound can be considered as an early start; if it falls below, then the rebound has not arrived yet. However, the judgment remains the same: there is a high probability of a daily-level rebound from late December to late January, but the starting point is yet to be confirmed, and 80,600 has not been confirmed yet.

In the short term, Bitcoin has formed a consolidation zone on the 1-hour chart. The rally before the rate cut was a move to leave the market, but now that it has fallen back into the consolidation zone, the rebound rhythm has been interrupted. The 1-hour correction starting from 94,500 likely has not finished, and support around 87,000 should be watched. If it falls below 87,500, it basically confirms the start of a four-hour decline, and the subsequent movement will likely follow a “down-up-down” three-wave pattern on the 1-hour chart.

Last Friday, the 15-minute chart showed intense volatility: initially falling to 89,200, then V-shaped rebounding to 93,500, followed by a retreat to around 90,000, with sideways consolidation over the weekend. Although the movement is complex, the high-level long strategy remains unchanged. Short-term focus should be on the support zone of 89,000-90,000. If 89,000 is lost, Bitcoin is likely to test 87,000; only if it stabilizes above 90,300 can the 1-hour rebound be confirmed.

Ethereum’s structure is clear: on the 1-hour chart, it dropped from 3,450 below 3,100; the three-buy signal in the 1-hour consolidation zone failed, increasing the likelihood of a four-hour decline. Once the decline begins, it could at least drop below 2,800, and whether it breaks the previous low of 2,620 depends on the situation. The short-term 1-hour decline is not finished; watch support around 2,950. A 1-hour rebound is expected next week, but the strength needs to be observed.

Trend Overview

- Weekly and daily charts: downward trend, the daily decline is not over; 71,000 is unlikely to be broken

- Four-hour chart: downward trend, confirmed if falling below 87,500

- 1-hour and 15-minute charts: downward trend, observe the decline strength and the gain/loss of 89,000 support