Bitcoin is "Compressing" on the Monthly Frame – A Major Volatility Has Not Yet Occurred

Looking at Bitcoin on the monthly timeframe, one interesting detail can be observed: the fluctuation range from the bottom to the current month’s high remains very narrow, only about 12%. Meanwhile, historical statistics show that over 92% of previous months had volatility levels higher than this figure. In other words, for Bitcoin, a “calm” month like the current one is usually not the final state. As of now, the second turning point (P2) of the month was formed on 12/9, which is also when Bitcoin established a temporary top. However, considering the timing aspect, the occurrence of both the monthly high and low very early (before or exactly on 9/12) is extremely rare. Data indicates that this scenario happens in only about 4.3% of months. From this, a probabilistic hypothesis can be drawn: 👉 There is a high likelihood that Bitcoin will break either the current month’s high or low before the month ends. This does not confirm an uptrend or downtrend, but it provides an important advantage: helping traders gauge the expected range for a forthcoming volatility move. In the context where prices are near the middle of the monthly range, the probability of a strong run-up becomes even more noteworthy. If a trader has a clear bias for the rest of the month (even if it is not necessarily present), then a reasonable minimum target would be the month’s high or low – or even beyond. Because the distance from the current price to the high or low still exceeds 5%, enough to create a meaningful trading opportunity. In summary, Bitcoin is in a “range compression” state on the monthly chart. History shows that such phases usually do not last long, and a significant move is very likely still ahead in the rest of the month. Sharing this perspective to provide everyone with additional data for managing expectations and trading strategies. Hope this information will be helpful.