The Bank of Japan is highly likely to decide on a rate hike this week, with Polymarket betting on a 98% probability of an increase, which is almost certain. Looking back at Japan's recent rate hikes, the negative interest rate ended in March 2024, then increased to 0.25% in July, and to 0.5% in January 2025. This time, it is expected to rise to 0.75%. The previous three rate hikes had minimal impact on Bitcoin, with no significant declines in the one or two months before or after. After all, in the vast financial system, Bitcoin's share is still small. While a rate hike in yen may lead to liquidations of yen-denominated positions, the overall impact is limited. However, Bitcoin has often surged significantly before and after rate hikes, mainly driven by large inflows into ETFs. Overall, Japan's rate hike is unlikely to have a major impact on the market. Christmas is approaching, and over the past 11 years, the week before Christmas has seen 8 increases, and the week after has seen 6 increases, showing an overall positive trend. But this year's movement isn't very strong, and low-probability events could occur. An ideal scenario would be to revisit 80,000, providing a good entry point. Looking forward to next year, with liquidity injections, a wave of crypto applications, RWA development, and payment system improvements, cryptocurrencies may迎来 a new opportunity!