#CryptoMarketRebound #BTCMarketAnalysis

Is the bearish side in control of the Bitcoin price?
Bitcoin (BTC) enters its final full week before the year threatening to lose the $90,000 support level.
Bitcoin investors are preparing for sideways trading as the price remains stuck without catalysts.
The new year bearish flag gives some reason to see a bullish outcome for the current BTC price consolidation.
In a week with important macroeconomic data from the US, CPI and unemployment figures stand out.
Derivative markets are pricing in medium-term risk following the Fed's foreseeable interest rate cuts.
Short-term holders are giving additional signals of an ongoing market reset.
As the holiday season approaches, market participants are demanding clearer signals before taking positions.
BTC price movements appear to be within a range, and it is trading that way.
The endpoints of this new range seem to be $80,000 and $99,000. A move towards one of these endpoints may occur soon.
There is more liquidation around the EMA ($95,500) on the upside. This makes it somewhat more likely that this area will be tested first, relative to the 50-day exponential moving average.
Recent data shows the potential importance of the $95,000 region as a short-term price magnet during the day.
Exchange order book liquidity, following the sweep of buy orders overnight, is now positioned to target short positions.
The amount of liquidity between the $95,000 and $98,000 regions shines brighter than the sun.
A large player could artificially push the price up to execute a large sell order.
The key to the short-term direction is the $90,000 level.
If the $90,000 region is broken, I think we will see a rapid move to $92,000-$94,000. This increases the likelihood of a quick break to $100,000.
However, if $90,000 still holds as resistance, there is a possibility of going much lower. It's an important week.
Looking at it in detail, downward BTC price predictions include a return to levels closer to $50,000.
The Bear Flag Debate Continues
As 2025 draws to a close, a pattern is being closely watched by investors on BTC price charts.
The bear flag that formed on daily timeframes has led to a growing consensus that the current price movement is merely a relief bounce within a broader downtrend. New lows are expected when the pattern breaks.
However, not everyone believes this pattern will give sellers control.
This bear flag and measured move are unlikely to materialize.
Instead, a higher low or a shallow sweep, as we saw in April, may occur.
Following the implementation of US trade tariffs, BTC price performance saw the price fall below $75,000, followed by a multi-month recovery.
Higher lows are also under the radar on the monthly chart. While Bitcoin's 30% drop from its all-time high raises questions about whether it's at the beginning of a new bear market, a potential reversal structure is already in play.
Many are convinced this is the start of a painful bear market, but the monthly chart supports a prolonged bull cycle.
Macroeconomic Data Back in Sight
A busy schedule of macroeconomic data is expected from the US as we approach the final full week before Christmas.
Unemployment figures will be a key focus for risky asset investors, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Thursday.
Both data sets will include data not released during the government shutdown, shedding light on economic trends that investors and policymakers have been deprived of for months.
A large amount of economic data is coming this week.
A significant amount of economic data left over from the government shutdown has officially arrived.
These announcements coincide with the Federal Reserve's commencement of increasing liquidity after formally ending the final round of quantitative tightening (QT) at the end of November.
While inflation remains above the Fed's theoretical 2 percent target, interest rates continue to fall. All of this points to an ideal mix of catalysts for risky assets.
The increase in liquidity coincides with strong economic growth and fiscal stimulus due to tax and spending adjustments next year.
This is a perfect storm of conditions to carry the bull market into the new year. With valuations historically broad, a positive earnings outlook is critical to support further gains in the equity market.
Cryptocurrencies have diverged significantly from stocks and gold in the past month and have failed to benefit from the latest round of financial easing by central banks worldwide.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said in a speech at the White House over the weekend that inflation has been “completely neutralized.”
“We could bring it down a little bit more, but you don’t want that. You don’t want deflation; deflation is worse than inflation in many ways,” he said.
Bitcoin options traders lock positions after Fed move
The Fed’s move quickly began to impact Bitcoin derivatives markets.
Investors are now distinctly in a “wait and see” mode.
Implicit price volatility has tightened after the FOMC meeting, but downside risk remains consistently priced in.
Trend and flow data point to a market expecting limited upside prospects, sideways conditions, and continued sensitivity to macroeconomic factors rather than new policy catalysts.
The element supporting the predictions was the decreasing implicit price volatility between weekly and six-month timeframes.
The market is removing uncertainty from pricing as the policy catalyst is behind it.
Nevertheless, concerns about the stability of Japanese markets have led some commentators to warn of a strong return to price volatility across risky assets.
This Friday, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates, contrary to the global easing trend. Historically, this has had bearish consequences for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin speculators are surrendering at a rate not seen since late 2023, setting the stage for a market recovery.
The ratio of losing on-chain transactions from long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders has hit two-year lows.
When STH-related on-chain losses become significantly more common than LTH losses, it could signal that speculative activity is in the process of being cleared.
The SOPR ratio has recently fallen to 1.29. This level hasn't been seen since BTCUSD's third-quarter 2023 bull run, when it was trading around $30,000.
This sharp drop indicates that short-term holders (STH) have experienced significant losses compared to long-term holders (LTH), who largely held onto their positions and took little profit or even suffered losses.
Historically, such extreme lows in the ratio coincide with periods of significant capitulation for speculative participants, often clearing out weak hands and paving the way for a market recovery.