#美国证券交易委员会推进数字资产监管框架创新 Non-farm payroll data is coming. How will the precious metals market move?

Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, the US November seasonally adjusted non-farm employment data will be released. This data has been delayed for some time, and it’s finally about to be unveiled. Once announced, it will inevitably redefine market expectations for Federal Reserve policies, causing major asset classes to fluctuate accordingly.

From the signs, the situation may be quite complex. The October non-farm payroll was revised from an initial 12,000 to 36,000—this itself is a signal. Plus, the temporary disruptions from recent hurricanes and strikes have gradually subsided, so November employment data could see a strong rebound. Although many institutions forecast around 50,000 new jobs, historical experience shows that whenever disturbances fade, employment recovery often exceeds expectations. Hiring demand in industries like healthcare and hospitality remains strong, further increasing the likelihood of data exceeding forecasts.

The logical chain is straightforward: stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll → US economic fundamentals improve → market reinforces expectations of high interest rates → US dollar index and Treasury yields rise together → the cost of holding precious metals increases → gold prices come under pressure. Although, from a medium- to long-term perspective, expectations of rate cuts and central bank gold purchases provide some support, in the face of this data shock, short-term bearish sentiment is likely to dominate.

Trading idea: When gold rebounds to the 4300-4310 range, consider short positions targeting the 4260-4240 zone. But remember, volatility after the data release could be intense, so set stop-loss orders carefully. If the unemployment rate unexpectedly rises sharply, it could be a different story—be prepared for such black swan events. The key is to stay aligned with the data logic, seize short-term trading opportunities, and also keep an eye on changes in the medium- and long-term trend.