The US November Non-Farm Payrolls data release is imminent, and this report often has an immediate impact on international gold prices. Let's take a look at three possible scenarios and their market reaction mechanisms.

**Strong Employment Data: US Dollar Appreciates, Gold Under Pressure**

If non-farm employment exceeds expectations by 50,000, the unemployment rate drops below 4.4%, and average hourly earnings rise, it indicates that the US labor market remains hot. The market will reassess the Federal Reserve's stance—central banks may stick to a high-interest-rate strategy or even delay rate cuts. As a result, the US dollar index and Treasury yields will rise. Gold, as a non-interest-bearing asset, will naturally become less attractive, and in most cases, gold prices will face downward pressure. Investors should pay close attention to whether key support levels can hold.

**Weak Employment Data: Safe-Haven Buying Surges**

Conversely, if non-farm employment falls short of expectations by 50,000, the unemployment rate rises, and wage growth slows, it signals an economic slowdown. The market will anticipate the Fed to accelerate rate cuts, leading to a decline in the dollar and Treasury yields. At this point, gold's safe-haven and inflation-hedging properties will be activated, and capital inflows could push gold prices higher, potentially breaking through previous resistance levels.

**Data in Line with Expectations: Range-Bound Fluctuations**

When non-farm data aligns closely with expectations, the labor market appears neutral, and the Fed's policy direction remains uncertain. The balance between bullish and bearish forces is temporarily maintained. Gold often enters a consolidation range, with technical factors, geopolitical events, dollar liquidity, and unexpected news acting as primary drivers.

It is worth noting that non-farm data is often released alongside October retail sales, November average hourly earnings, and other indicators. If these data points diverge—for example, weak employment but rising wages—the volatility of gold prices will become more complex, requiring a comprehensive analysis of multiple data dimensions to make informed judgments.