Federal Reserve Chair Succession Uncertainty: What Do Investors Think?

Question

【Crypto World】U.S. Bank's December Global Fund Manager Survey Released. The results are quite interesting—about 69% of respondents believe that Trump will nominate White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hasset as the next Federal Reserve Chair. In comparison, the voices for Federal Reserve Board Member Waller and former Board Member Kevin Waugh are much lower, each accounting for 4%.The timing of this survey is noteworthy. It was conducted before Trump revealed his inclination to choose between Hasset or Waugh in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. The current Federal Reserve Chair Powell's term expires in May next year, so this appointment will have a direct impact on future monetary policy.From a market perspective, the identity of the Fed Chair could reshape investors' expectations for interest rate trends and economic policies. The significant differences in economic philosophies among the candidates could also trigger chain reactions in valuation logic for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

WhaleShadow · Accepted Answer

Hasset's such high support indicates that everyone is optimistic about his hawkish stance, which is good news for Bitcoin.

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69% favor Hasset. What does this data indicate? The market has already priced it in.

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The key is the policy shift. Cryptocurrency markets are the most sensitive; a change in the chairperson or interest rate policy can cause a quick turnaround.

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Wells only has 4%, completely overlooked haha.

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With the Federal Reserve chairperson change, I only care about one thing—will they continue to raise interest rates? That’s the real key to the coin price.

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Wait, this survey was done before Powell was confirmed, right? The information has long since changed.

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If Hasset really takes office and adopts a dovish policy, then my plan to increase positions is set.

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The choice of Federal Reserve chairperson directly impacts cryptocurrencies. Everyone understands that, but the question is whether the market can react in advance.

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Fund managers managing hundreds of millions of dollars are so optimistic about Hasset. What are retail investors still hesitating about?

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Honestly, instead of worrying about who becomes the chairperson, it’s better to focus on when interest rates will actually start to fall.

MEVHunterLucky · Answer

Hasset has such high buzz, is it real or fake? Feels like the market is being led by the rhythm.

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69%? This voting turnout is outrageous. Is it really so certain?

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Whether Powell steps down or not, it's hard to say if it will be good or bad for crypto. It depends on who takes over.

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As soon as the chair changes, monetary policy will change. The crypto circle is probably going to storm again.

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Why does Wosh only have 4%? What's the logic of these fund managers?

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Worrying about next May's events now is pointless. Let's wait and see the market reaction.

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When interest rate expectations change, asset valuations go haywire. As retail investors, we might as well wait to be cut.

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Is it interesting? It's all about Trump's face, no definitive conclusion.

SmartContractDiver · Answer

If Hasset takes over, can Bitcoin return to 100,000? That's what we should be concerned about...

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Once again, this kind of "market expectation" is meaningless; it all depends on who Trump ultimately chooses.

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A 69% probability means nothing; the real black swan hasn't appeared yet.

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The schedule was only set in May. Is arguing about it now just for entertainment? Maybe we should wait until January next year to see what happens.

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Is the 4% for Wosh possibly due to issues with the survey responses...

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Different candidates' attitudes towards crypto are the real issue; interest rate policies are secondary.

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By the way, is Hasset reliable? Has anyone looked into his background?

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So, how should we adjust our holdings now? Wait until May or act now?

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Every time the Federal Reserve Chair changes, the crypto world goes through a "faith crisis." Exhausting.

DeFiDoctor · Answer

69% of consensus expectations hide signs of liquidity indicator failure, and the time lag in surveys has become a hidden risk in market pricing... Medical records show that the market is still using old data to price new policies, and this complication needs regular check-ups.

liquidation_surfer · Answer

Is Hasset really going to run? 69% of votes is a bit outrageous, it feels like the market has already bet on it.

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If Powell steps down in May, that’s the real variable. At that point, crypto will need to be re-priced.

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Can Fed Chairpersons with such different ideas be so far apart? That means this round of market movement is just beginning.

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Wait, was the survey conducted before Trump made his decision? Then the data is already outdated haha.

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A change in the Federal Reserve Chair will lead to a re-evaluation of risk assets. This is the most direct chain reaction, which we didn’t expect before.

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69% of fund managers are optimistic about Hasset, what does that say... Are they not clear on where the money is flowing?

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Once the interest rate trend is confirmed, the story in crypto will be easier to tell.

ApyWhisperer · Answer

Hasset's high profile feels like the market has already priced it in, the real variables are still ahead

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69% is a bit high, it seems fund managers are thinking the same, which is the most dangerous

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Wait, was the survey conducted before Trump's statement? Then the data might already be outdated

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The change of Federal Reserve Chair has a huge impact on the crypto circle, different candidates will really change the entire liquidity landscape

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Wosh only accounts for 4%, it seems Wall Street has little expectation for him

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Why do I always feel like these surveys are all after-the-fact armchair strategies? The real decision-making power still lies with Trump alone

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Changing the monetary policy stance will definitely alter the tightening or loosening, and the pricing logic of crypto assets is directly linked to this

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The May next year is being hyped so aggressively now, a typical case of being pre-priced in

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To be honest, the biggest impact on retail investors from who takes office isn't the monetary policy itself, but market expectations differences

CryptoWageSlave · Answer

Hassett has such a high profile, but how likely is it that he is truly determined to be nominated?

If Powell steps down, the crypto market will have to recalculate; interest rates really affect everything.

Bet on it: a new chairman with a more lenient attitude toward crypto than Powell would be the real game-changer.

This survey timing is perfect; Trump quickly changed his tune, haha.

Although the Kevin brothers have a lower profile, who knows? There are plenty of last-minute efforts.