Dear crypto friends, instead of obsessing over the ups and downs of the market chart, it’s better to take a long-term view. The upcoming macro signal could reshape the entire rhythm of next year’s market.

HSBC’s foreign exchange analysts recently provided a key assessment: the current depreciation cycle of the US dollar may extend from the end of this year into 2026. The crucial factor determining whether our digital assets can share in this global liquidity expansion dividend hinges on the US labor data released on Tuesday.

As someone who has been exploring this space for eight years, I’ll be straightforward: don’t overly rely on a single news factor. But the expectation of continued dollar weakening is indeed a quite friendly signal for the crypto market—so long as there are no unexpected surprises in Tuesday’s non-farm payroll data.

Many newcomers might ask: how does the rise or fall of the dollar directly relate to my crypto trading? Well, I need to explain the logic behind this.

**The core point is this**: crypto assets are essentially risk assets priced in USD. The dollar is like the global capital’s safe anchor. If this anchor becomes lighter—that is, if the dollar depreciates—then the relative purchasing power of other assets naturally rises. HSBC’s forecast of a dollar depreciation cycle actually hints that global liquidity may gradually loosen. A weaker dollar usually accompanies adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, and liquidity expansion? That’s exactly what the crypto market needs most.

Without a continuous influx of incremental funds, even promising projects can only stagnate and lose momentum. So the US labor market data released on Tuesday is actually the “targeted breakout point” for this round of market movement.