Behind Trump's "Red Envelope" Promise: US Power Restructuring Seen Through the $2000 Subsidy

Trump recently announced a seemingly generous policy—distributing at least $2000 to every American. This news sounds absolutely good, but the accompanying questions are just as sharp: where does the money come from? If this amount is to cover over 200 million people, the total would reach up to $400 billion. Trump’s answer is: “Tariff revenues bring us trillions of dollars every year, inflation is near zero, and the stock market is hitting all-time highs… $2000 is just a small matter!”

It sounds confident, but can this confidence stand up to scrutiny?

An Embarrassing Reality: The 41-Day Government Shutdown

To understand why Trump suddenly wants to issue this “red envelope,” we must first look at the current state of the U.S. government. A 41-day government shutdown—this is a record high. In this situation, government workers go unpaid, queue for relief; flights are canceled, factories halt production; salaries at overseas U.S. military bases are delayed, and countries like Italy, Germany, and Portugal are demanding “debt repayment”; the Pentagon remains silent, and the White House pretends nothing has happened.

In such chaos, why does Trump still promise to send money? The answer might be more complicated than it seems.

The Supreme Court’s Constraints: Limited Power

The key turning point lies at the legal level. Trump, based on the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), implemented a global “proportional tariff” policy. But this law was originally designed to respond to emergencies like war and terrorism, and has never been used as a large-scale, long-term tax tool. The New York International Trade Court has already ruled that this exceeds authority. The case has been appealed to the Supreme Court.

Even more problematic is that, even if six justices in the Supreme Court lean Republican, justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, whom Trump appointed, have expressed doubts about the “unlimited presidential taxing power.” Even his own appointees are not on his side, making the situation extremely unfavorable for Trump.

“Using Red Envelopes to Counter the Judiciary”: A Political Calculation

In this context, Trump’s promise of a $2000 subsidy appears somewhat “malicious.” He must create some form of public pressure. The logic is this: if the Supreme Court bans tariffs, it would cut off the livelihood of over 200 million Americans. This move is called “public opinion pressure constraining the judiciary”—using public expectation to limit judicial independence, exchanging subsidy promises for political leverage.

Distracting Attention Amid a Trust Crisis

The government shutdown has caused public confidence to plummet. People are voicing their discontent, and Trump’s approval ratings are under pressure. At such a moment, announcing large subsidies becomes a perfect “distraction” tool. Although it won’t truly solve the problem, it can give the lower classes a glimmer of “hope” and send a “threat” to opponents. More cleverly, Trump emphasizes that “the wealthy are not included in the subsidies,” naturally winning sympathy from middle- and low-income groups—ironic, considering Trump himself is a billionaire whose companies have long enjoyed various tax benefits.

Deeper Power Logic

Don’t be fooled by the surface of “red envelopes.” Trump’s real intention is to establish a new power system:

First: Bypass Congress to make tax decisions, establishing “presidential independent fiscal authority.”

Second: Use tariff revenues to buy public support, creating a system where “the president is directly accountable to voters.”

Third: Leverage public pressure to weaken judicial constraints, undermining checks and balances.

Once these three steps are completed, the U.S. president would evolve from a “elected official” into a “lifelong ruler.”

$BNB $BTC $ETH