After ETH breaks through 3000, how to respond to being trapped by 200 points? Key signal analysis tonight

Phenomenon Review: The Sharp Rise from 2820 to 3000

Last night, ETH hovered around the 2820 level, and many traders thought this was a strong resistance level, signaling a clear shorting opportunity. Unexpectedly, the market suddenly gained momentum, pushing the price above 3000. With this rally, many investors who were shorting got caught in a trap—this is a typical pitfall in short-term volatility.

News Perspective: The Truth Behind BlackRock’s $130 Million Token Transfer

The market is paying attention to an important signal: BlackRock transferred 44,140 ETH to exchanges, worth approximately $134.5 million. This move has sparked various interpretations—some believe institutions are about to dump, providing a short-term buy signal; others are optimistic about institutional entry.

In reality, BlackRock has been continuously transferring tokens to exchanges recently, mainly to meet redemption demands from its investors and to cash out. Such token transfers have limited decisive impact on short-term trends. The key focus now should be tonight’s non-farm payroll data—if the data is negative, there could be a pullback; if positive, risk control becomes crucial.

In-Depth Technical Analysis

Short-term Trend Judgment

From the 2-hour candlestick chart, ETH shows a “bottoming out and rebounding” pattern. The support levels at 2620 and 2790 have not been effectively broken. Currently, the price stabilizes around 3069, still some distance from the critical level of 2970. This indicates that the bullish momentum in the short term is maintaining support.

Trading volume also warrants attention—charts show “volume expansion and rise,” indicating that it’s not retail investors blindly chasing highs, but genuine funds are accumulating at lower levels.

Indicator Signals

The MACD indicator has formed a “bullish crossover below the zero line”—similar to a spring being compressed to the bottom and then rebounding, suggesting that short-term momentum is relatively not weak. However, the RSI indicator is in the overbought zone at the upper end, like a spring about to bounce back, so caution is needed for a short-term “sharp rise followed by a correction.”

Risk Warning

The current price is $2.93K, with a 24-hour change of -0.22%. Investors need to recognize that this rally is not over yet, but there is a clear risk of reversal.

Post-Trap Response Logic

For traders already caught in a trap, strategies should be tailored based on position size:

Light Positions

You can gradually add short positions in the 3070-3100 range, lowering the average cost to improve the depth of the trap. But this is only advisable if you have a basic judgment of the subsequent trend, not blind operation.

Heavy Positions

The primary task is to set stop-losses to prevent liquidation risks. Also, closely monitor the key support at 2970—if broken, there’s still a chance for rebound later. However, increasing positions further is not recommended; risk control should come first.

Core Recommendations

Avoid blindly bottom-fishing or stubbornly holding short positions. The key is to learn trend analysis, follow news developments, and control position sizes. ETH is at a critical moment now; contrarian operations will only increase losses. The correct approach is to set clear stop-loss points, adjust strategies based on data events, and avoid relying on complex tactics like “hedging.”

Markets are always changing, but the principles of risk management remain unchanged—controlling risk always comes before profit.