Can ETH break through 3365? Beware of false rebounds. Is 3055 really a "wolf coming"?

Recent Ethereum price movements have been volatile, currently hovering around $2.95K, drawing significant market attention. While short-term rebound signs are evident, multiple technical indicators suggest hidden risks—will the key resistance level at 3365 be a breakthrough opportunity or a “wolf coming” style trap to lure buyers?

Technical Analysis: Rebound Doubtful, Resistance Layers Set

From the 1-hour chart, ETH shows signs of rising from lows, but the MACD white and yellow lines still form a death cross below the zero axis. This signal is not unfounded—it directly reflects a decline in short-term momentum. Until MACD shows upward correction, any rally lacks substantial support.

More importantly, there are multiple resistances above. Around 3640, significant sell orders are stacked, making the 3500 level a “breathing point” for rebound attempts, while 3272.31 forms a solid resistance line. Breaking through these three defenses is no easy feat.

On the daily chart and longer timeframes, ETH has broken below the 200-day moving average, entering a clear bear market phase. This indicates that 3518 is not a bottom zone, and the market still needs to seek further lows. The next support should be around 3400.

News and Capital Flow: Dual Pressure, Rebound Limited

Current market sentiment has not reversed; although there are signs of a rebound, this is more of a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. After encountering resistance at 3500, prices tend to decline again, forming a “false breakout.” Chasing highs can trap investors, which is the biggest risk at present.

From a capital perspective, the selling pressure around 3640 remains strong, indicating that bulls lack decisive buying power. Under this pattern, it is unrealistic to expect a smooth breakthrough and stabilization at 3365.

Trading Strategy: Three Principles to Avoid Pitfalls

Short-term trading should be cautious
When a profit opportunity appears in the 3365-3500 range, it should be taken immediately. Do not fantasize that “breaking resistance will inevitably lead to a big rise.” The current technical outlook does not support such optimism. Once high resistance is confirmed, exit decisively.

Medium to long-term layout targets 3055
If the price breaks below 3200 support, the downside target is 3055. This level has historically been a “defense line” left by large funds, representing a key cost area for major players. Participants with bottom-fishing intentions can set buy orders in batches but avoid full position at once, reserving 20% of funds for possible further declines.

Discipline in stop-loss is essential
If already trapped, and the price rebounds to 3450 but fails to break 3500 effectively, stop-loss immediately to free up funds for the next opportunity. Waiting for a drop to 3200 to cut losses often results in larger losses.

Market Outlook

Whether ETH can successfully rise this wave depends on whether momentum indicators like MACD show signs of reversal. Currently, the “wolf coming” alarm has not been lifted—rebounds are likely just a breather during a downtrend, not a genuine change in direction. Investors should adjust strategies flexibly based on technical analysis, avoiding excessive pessimism that leads to missed opportunities or over-optimism that results in deep traps.