Will Bitcoin reach a new high again in 2026? Institutional capital waves and regulatory shifts may be the key

【Blockchain Rhythm】After experiencing a correction over the past two months, will Bitcoin really hit new highs again? The CEO of a well-known crypto asset management firm recently gave a definitive answer — by 2026, Bitcoin will surpass its all-time high.

This judgment sounds bold, but there is logical support behind it. The analysts at this firm point out that Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle: three years of significant gains, followed by one year of deep correction. According to this pattern, 2026 should be a correction year. But the problem is — this pattern may no longer be valid.

Why? The key forces driving this cycle are all weakening.

First, let’s talk about Bitcoin halving. Each halving’s impact is objectively half of the previous one. The halving myth still exists, but its power has diminished. Next, consider interest rates. The rate hike cycles in 2018 and 2022 both suppressed prices, but this time is different — the expected interest rate in 2026 is actually projected to decline, which is a positive signal for crypto assets. Additionally, leverage risk has decreased. After the large-scale liquidations in October 2025, market leverage levels have significantly dropped. Coupled with the gradual improvement of regulations, the probability of a major crash has noticeably decreased.

More importantly, a turning point is here: the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs starting in 2024 has opened the floodgates for institutional capital. By 2026, this wave will continue to accelerate — traditional financial giants like Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo will officially start crypto asset allocations. Plus, the pro-crypto policy shift following the US election will begin to take real effect, with Wall Street and fintech companies gradually adopting crypto assets. All these forces coming together provide a new source of momentum for Bitcoin to surge higher.

So, this time might really be different. Not relying on old cycle patterns, but on the genuine opening of the institutional gates.