Fidelity 2026 Outlook: Will the 4-year Bitcoin cycle disappear?

Source: TokocryptoBlog Original Title: Fidelity Outlook 2026: The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Might Be Gone! Original Link: According to the Fidelity Digital Assets report, the cryptocurrency market is expected to become more mature by 2026, with mainstream adoption by governments and enterprises accelerating. Research Vice President Chris Kuiper pointed out that some investors predict that due to the increasing widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin may no longer be applicable.

Kuiper agrees with this speculation, believing that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin may have truly ended, but investors’ fears and greed regarding this cycle will not dissipate immediately. 2026 will be a critical year to determine whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle will return or truly disappear.

In this uncertainty, entering the market now may carry risks for retail investors (if a bear market occurs), but Kuiper emphasizes that from a long-term perspective, Bitcoin remains attractive because its supply is fixed. He stated, “As long as the supply doesn’t change, every purchase of Bitcoin is essentially storing your work value to hedge against inflation caused by government monetary policies.”

Fidelity also predicts that more countries will adopt Bitcoin as foreign exchange reserves, following the United States and Kyrgyzstan. This could create game theory effects, prompting other nations to act to avoid falling behind.

The four-year Bitcoin cycle might no longer exist?

Since 2009, Bitcoin has been the leading digital asset, with its price patterns often associated with a four-year cycle triggered by halving events, where mining rewards are cut approximately every four years. This cycle typically results in a bull market followed by sharp corrections within a year after the halving.

Fidelity points out that Bitcoin moves within an approximately four-year cycle (from one bull market peak to the next, or from one bear market bottom to the next). Bitcoin formed bull market peaks in November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021, and bear market bottoms in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022.

These cycles are accompanied by significant price volatility. The first cycle saw a drop from $1,150 to $152, the second from $19,800 to $3,200, and the third from $69,000 to $15,500.

Kuiper explains that if the four-year cycle repeats, we should have already reached new all-time highs and entered a full bear market. However, the decline in November 2025 might just be a correction within a bull market, pushing Bitcoin toward new historical highs. He added that full confirmation might only be clear by 2026.

Bitcoin’s market cap continues to grow

In terms of market cap, Bitcoin reached $2 trillion in 2025 but experienced a correction, yet it remains among the top 10 global assets. As market cap increases, larger capital is needed to drive price movements, which reduces volatility.

Glassnode data shows that since early cycles, Bitcoin’s volatility has been steadily decreasing. The inverse relationship between Bitcoin’s exponential market cap growth and the linear decline in annualized volatility (from peaks over 600% in the early 2010s to below 50% now) confirms that: as market cap grows, larger capital injections are required to trigger significant price changes, thus reducing volatility.

Over 100 major companies hold cryptocurrencies

More than 100 publicly listed companies hold cryptocurrencies, with about 50 of them holding over 1 million Bitcoin in total. These companies are not only based in the US but also spread across Europe, Latin America, and Asia.

Additionally, government-level adoption, such as the US strategic Bitcoin reserve established through an executive order by March 2025, and proposals from Kyrgyzstan and Brazil to allocate up to 5% of international reserves to Bitcoin, are expected to increase demand pressure.

Is there still a chance to buy Bitcoin now?

According to Kuiper, the cryptocurrency market is entering a new paradigm, and a wave of traditional investors is beginning to buy Bitcoin and other digital assets. He emphasizes that the potential inflow of funds into the crypto space remains very large.

In the short to medium term, if you follow the four-year cycle, it might already be too late, especially if price cycles follow historical patterns—because the top is typically one year after the halving (2025). Kuiper does mention the possibility that the four-year cycle might disappear, but this risk is quite significant.

For long-term investing, Kuiper is very bullish. He stated, “I personally never think anyone is really too late when buying Bitcoin, if you see it as a store of value. As long as the supply remains limited, every purchase means putting your labor or savings into something that won’t be eroded by inflation caused by government monetary policies.”