#美国非农就业数据表现强劲 $ETH $BTC $ASTER

Yesterday's non-farm payroll data was released, and the market reaction was very direct—job creation far exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate continued to stay low. This directly slapped the Federal Reserve in the face, causing market expectations of a rate cut in March next year to cool rapidly. Bitcoin immediately plummeted below $88,000, with altcoins following suit with even larger declines.

But the real variable comes from the other side of the Pacific. On December 19, the Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates to 0.75%—the largest rate hike in 30 years.

Why is this so critical? It involves something called carry trade. Over the past thirty years, global speculators have been doing one thing: borrowing yen (with ultra-low interest rates), then leveraging to buy U.S. bonds, U.S. stocks, and even cryptocurrencies. How big is this market? Estimated between 4 to 20 trillion USD. Once Japan raises rates, the cost of borrowing yen skyrockets, and these speculators will prioritize pulling back to Japan to "plug the leak," with cryptocurrencies naturally being the first to be hit.

The upcoming situation depends on how two forces will clash. One is the high-interest-rate expectation supported by the non-farm data, and the other is the potential liquidity tightening triggered by Japan's rate hike. If these two factors resonate, Bitcoin could directly test the $80,000 support level. If the Federal Reserve then signals dovishness to counterbalance, the crypto market might get a breather.

However, regardless, this liquidity shift sparked by the combined effects of non-farm data and Japan's rate hike has already left the entire market hanging on a knife's edge. The true answer depends on how the Federal Reserve moves next.