The synchronized game between Japan's rate hikes and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may be seriously underestimated by the market in terms of its impact.

It's easy to say, but this is not just about changes in interest rate numbers. Over the past 30 years, global capital has become accustomed to borrowing in yen and turning to global investment arbitrage strategies—now, this logic is fundamentally being shaken. In comparison, the Fed's rate cuts are just routine adjustments within an established rhythm, and their impact is on a completely different scale.

"Expectations have already been digested"—this statement is too optimistic. On one side, the Japanese debt system needs restructuring; on the other, dollar liquidity is still being loosened. This two-way squeeze will trigger a large-scale reallocation of global capital. Weeks? Far from enough. If the Fed continues to cut rates, the massive arbitrage assets denominated in dollars will inevitably accelerate liquidation— the scale of funds involved behind this is simply beyond what hundreds of millions can describe.

The real turning point will come when liquidity surges past a certain critical level, allowing new asset classes to receive sustained attention.

In this process, Bitcoin is quite contradictory. It was born outside the traditional monetary system and theoretically can avoid being crushed by policy upheavals of "pillar currencies"; but in reality, it still cannot escape the fate of dollar-denominated assets, and it remains under pressure when liquidity tightens. The key question is—how long will it take for institutions to see it as a genuine "long-term allocation"? This might be the trigger for its next phase.

The halving cycle still has an impact, but I think its pattern will be weakened in the next round. Compared to narratives that still need time to be validated, Bitcoin offers something closer to the essence of finance: clear logic, transparent rules, and the ability to significantly reduce institutional research costs. When the next cycle truly arrives, it is very likely to become the first choice for efficiency-driven capital.

Finally, patience and risk management are essential. In the upcoming wave of assets, the situation for holders will be different. But the prerequisite is to survive until that day.