There has been quite a bit of discussion in the trading community about a question—if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as scheduled on December 19, will Bitcoin experience another wave of decline, or even fall below $70,000?

It sounds like a speculative guess, but there is actually a complete logic behind it. It involves macro policies, historical trends, and candlestick patterns, not just intuition.

**Why is the Bank of Japan so critical?**

To put it simply: Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates for many years, which has spawned a huge arbitrage game—using low-interest yen to buy high-risk assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies. Once the central bank hikes rates, things get complicated. The yen appreciates, borrowing costs soar, and funds relying on arbitrage are forced to liquidate. When global liquidity tightens, risk assets suffer, and Bitcoin is particularly sensitive to these changes.

**What does history tell us?**

The data is clear: since last year, every time the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, Bitcoin's performance has been less than ideal—down 23% in March, 26% in July, and a direct 31% drop in January this year. This correlation is not a coincidence but a real pattern. In other words, rate hikes often serve as a trigger for Bitcoin's phased adjustments.

**Technical analysis also signals caution**

Looking at the trend, Bitcoin is currently forming a textbook "bear flag"—initial rapid decline followed by a narrow range of oscillation. This pattern is usually not a reversal signal but a consolidation stage during a downtrend. Once the price breaks below this range, a new round of decline may be imminent.