Corporate executives warn: Prices will rise by 4% next year, and the Federal Reserve's inflation target may once again be missed

【CoinPush】American corporate executives are sending a not-so-encouraging signal.

According to the latest corporate financial survey conducted jointly by the Richmond and Atlanta Federal Reserve Banks and Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, the expectations of 548 CFOs are quite representative: next year, prices are expected to continue rising by about 4%. The problem is, this is exactly the data the Federal Reserve does not want to see.

The survey period spans from mid-November to early December. The results are somewhat sobering — corporate optimism about the economy is declining. The overall US economic optimism index dropped from 62.9 in Q3 to 60.2 (out of 100). Keep in mind, this was shortly after Trump won the presidency, when the market once surged to a high of 66. Now, it’s actually falling.

Tariff pressures have become the biggest concern. CFOs list tariffs as their top worry — directly impacting corporate cost expectations and pricing strategies.

What about employment and economic growth forecasts for 2026? They are generally moderate. Companies expect employment to grow by 1.7%, with an annual economic growth rate of about 1.9%. But hiring is noticeably cautious: less than 40% of companies are hiring new employees, and about 9% are even considering layoffs. This reflects the true attitude of businesses toward the future — cautious and conservative.

For market participants, this set of data has a clear implication: inflation persistence remains, and the Federal Reserve may have to wait longer to achieve its 2% inflation target. This will also impact the subsequent room for interest rate policies.