On December 17th, Federal Reserve Board member Waller's latest remarks drew market attention. He straightforwardly stated that the employment growth outlook is "not optimistic," which has become a core basis for supporting continued rate cuts. What does this signal mean? Let's break it down.

**Clear policy stance but cautious pace**

Waller supports gradually returning interest rates to a neutral level but emphasizes "no rush." In other words, the direction of rate cuts is fine, but the approach will be gradual. Notably, he appears quite confident on inflation—believing inflation expectations have stabilized, which gives policymakers more room to adjust. At the same time, facing the Trump administration, Waller also firmly reaffirmed the Federal Reserve's independence, making it clear that decision-making authority remains with the Fed.

**Short-term market will indeed get a boost**

Dovish statements typically boost risk appetite. Over the past few months, every time the Fed signals easing, funds tend to flow more into high-risk assets, benefiting the crypto market naturally. But there's a key timing issue: "no rush" means positive signals will be released gradually, so don't expect a sudden surge. Historically, during the last three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts, Bitcoin's performance was to first experience adjustments, then gradually stabilize and move upward.

**Three variables to watch closely**

First, whether the next meeting will continue with a gradual approach; second, whether the Trump administration's intervention in monetary policy will escalate; third, whether subsequent employment and inflation data can continue to support the basic logic of rate cuts. Any unexpected change in any of these factors could reverse market expectations.

**Environment remains friendly, but avoid blind chasing**

The current macro environment is relatively accommodative, supporting risk assets. However, there's an old saying in crypto: "Buy the rumor, sell the fact." True gains often occur before expectations are realized. You can allocate in phases to promising directions, but be sure to control your positions and avoid being swayed by short-term emotions. Whether BTC can hold key support levels depends on subsequent data validation and policy implementation.