The Bitcoin "Death Cross" has arrived, but this time it's different

【Crypto World】Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average recently fell below the 200-day moving average—that’s the so-called “death cross.” Many investors become nervous when they see this signal. But is this signal really that scary?

Interestingly, this technical indicator actually reacts with some lag. Looking at longer timeframes, based on historical data since 2011, after a death cross appears, the median return over 6 months is +30%, and over 12 months, the median return can reach +89%. Doesn’t sound like a disaster signal, does it?

The current situation is even more intriguing—Bitcoin has already fallen more than 30%. From a chart perspective, it looks more like the bottoms seen in previous cycles, rather than the start of a new sharp decline. Moreover, since the ETF launched, the market structure has also changed. So rather than being scared by this signal, it’s better to see it as a historical reference point.