#FedRateCutPrediction

#美联储降息预测

As we approach the Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of the year, markets are once again at a critical crossroads. With the announcement scheduled for 3:00 AM (UTC+8) and market pricing currently indicating an approximately 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, the focus is no longer just on whether a cut happens, but on what it truly means for risk assets and overall market direction.

From my perspective, a potential rate cut at this stage would be less about stimulating aggressive growth and more about confirming a policy shift. Over recent months, economic data has gradually pointed toward cooling inflation, softer labor conditions, and slower momentum across several sectors. In that context, a 25BP cut would signal that the Fed believes restrictive policy has done its job and that maintaining flexibility is now more important than further tightening. This alone has psychological value for markets.

However, the key question is whether a rate cut automatically leads to a sustained market rebound. I believe the answer depends heavily on expectations versus reality. Because a cut is already largely priced in, the initial reaction may be muted or even volatile. A short-term bounce is possible, especially in equities and crypto, but a strong continuation will require supportive forward guidance. If the Fed emphasizes data-dependence and gradual easing rather than aggressive cuts, markets may stabilize rather than surge.

In the crypto market specifically, rate cuts matter less for their size and more for what they represent. Lower rates reduce pressure on liquidity and real yields, which historically benefits risk-on assets. Even the confirmation that the tightening cycle is over can encourage capital rotation back into growth-oriented markets. That said, I expect any rally to be selective rather than broad, favoring assets with stronger fundamentals, clearer narratives, and healthier on-chain or adoption metrics.

Regarding my recent trading approach, I have been prioritizing risk management over prediction. Instead of betting heavily on the outcome, I’ve focused on partial positioning, wider confirmation zones, and avoiding overexposure ahead of the announcement. Volatility around Fed decisions often creates false breakouts in both directions, so patience and discipline are essential. I prefer reacting to confirmation after the decision rather than committing fully before it.

In summary, if the Fed delivers a 25BP rate cut, it may support market confidence, but it is unlikely to be a magic trigger for an immediate, sustained rebound on its own. The real driver will be the tone of the statement and the outlook for 2025. For traders and investors, this is a moment to stay flexible, respect volatility, and align strategies with both macro signals and market structure rather than emotion.

I see this meeting as a transition point rather than a final answer. The opportunity will come not from guessing the decision, but from how well we adapt to what follows.