The US unemployment rate approaches recession warning levels, and signs of an economic downturn are beginning to emerge.

【CryptoWorld】Nobel laureate in Economics and senior commentator Paul Krugman recently shared his views on the US employment situation. Based on the November non-farm payroll report released on December 16, he pointed out that signs of recession are becoming increasingly evident.

What do the data say? Let’s start with the unemployment rate. In November, the unemployment rate surged to 4.6%, significantly higher than this year’s average of 4%. This figure is crucial because it is approaching a widely watched warning indicator among institutional investors—the “Sam Rule.”

Where does this rule come from? It was proposed by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sam. In simple terms, when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more above the lowest point in the past 12 months, it is considered an early sign of an economic recession.

Although October data was incomplete due to the government shutdown, interpolating between September’s 4.4% and November’s 4.6%, October was approximately 4.5%. The unemployment rate trajectory over these three months is already very close to the threshold that triggers a recession warning according to the Sam Rule. Of course, Krugman also said that it is still too early to declare a recession outright, but these data are enough to indicate that the economy has entered a dangerous zone.