Bitcoin Options Market Overview: Traders Focus on Defense, Can It Break $100,000 in Three Months?

Question

【BlockBeats】Recent actions by traders say it all — risk appetite is clearly cooling down.

The implied volatility of 30-day Bitcoin options has surged to nearly 45%, with skew remaining stable around -5%. What does this indicate? It suggests that everyone is adopting defensive positions. If this trend continues into the first and second quarters of next year, it appears that the short-term risks have not been fully unleashed.

Interestingly, there is a clear divergence in the market. At strike prices of $100,000 and $120,000, the open interest in call options continues to accumulate — some traders still believe Bitcoin could make a strong rebound. These traders are betting on a reversal.

However, the actual flow of funds is quite clear. Bears have piled up a large open interest in put options near $85,000, clearly aiming to profit if Bitcoin falls below this key support level. In plain terms, they are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

From the implied probability perspective, the market’s expectations for Bitcoin are somewhat overly conservative. The probability of reaching $100,000 is only 30%, and the chance of hitting a new all-time high is just 10%. These numbers reflect not just technical analysis but a pure market sentiment — most people are on the sidelines, with few willing to place big bets.

GateUser-e87b21ee · Accepted Answer

Well, with so many short positions at 85,000, isn&#39;t that saying there might be a fall ahead? I&#39;m a bit scared, I need to hide for a while.

ShibaMillionairen&apos;t · Answer

The short positions piling up at 85,000 are really intense. Just waiting for the breakdown... It's a bit scary.

ser_ngmi · Answer

The bears are holding tightly at 85,000. This is the current situation... Looks like we'll have to wait until next year to see the outcome.

GlueGuy · Answer

The shorts are piling up so many sell orders at 8.5, clearly showing they're scared. If they really wanted to drop the price, they would have done it already. Now they’re using options to support the market—what does that say? It shows they're guilty.

LiquidatedDreams · Answer

85,000 cards are tightly held, the bears are really done for... The bulls are also betting, just see who has more ammunition.

SnapshotStriker · Answer

It's the same defensive stance again, with the bears holding firm at 85,000. It seems like there will still be some short-term volatility.

AirdropHunter007 · Answer

Wow, a 45% volatility taking off directly. These shorts are really betting on breaking 85,000, it's a bit fierce.