Has the four-year cycle of Bitcoin become invalid? Why is macro liquidity the real driving force?

2025-12-18 13:20:10

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【Crypto World】Is the four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin still reliable? Many people are starting to question it.

The key point is that the changes on the supply side are no longer as obvious — over 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined, so the impact of halving on supply is naturally smaller. From another perspective, the large fluctuations in Bitcoin prices are actually more closely related to the global liquidity cycle. Just think about the strong market reaction when the spot ETF was approved in 2024. Macroeconomic environment and the tightening or loosening of funds are the real influencing factors, not the halving itself.

Currently, the market sentiment is indeed not very optimistic, and hot topics are drifting towards other tech fields. But don’t forget, if global liquidity truly begins to loosen and rebound, Bitcoin’s subsequent performance could be reactivated. The variables in this game are far more complex than everyone thinks.

BTC-0.91%

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DegenRecoveryGroup

· 12-20 17:04

Four-year cycle is an old story; it's time to change the script. The real thing that sustains us is liquidity. Halving? That's just a smokescreen.

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ShortingEnthusiast

· 12-18 13:43

The halving theory has long been dead. To put it simply, it's all about macro liquidity playing around; the funding environment is the real boss.

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LucidSleepwalker

· 12-18 13:33

The halving theory should have gone bankrupt long ago. Bitcoin is now just relying on the Federal Reserve's mood, while the real fundamentals are in the macroeconomic landscape.

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TommyTeacher

· 12-18 13:26

Liquidity is king; the halving strategy is long outdated. With 95% already mined, expecting supply shocks? Wake up, everyone.

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LiquidityWitch

· 12-18 13:23

liquidity's the real spell here, not some dusty halving cycle... macro currents got bitcoin dancing on strings we don't even see yet

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