"Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" faces a cold reception? The DeFi regulatory tug-of-war behind the banking industry's billion-dollar political battle

[Crypto World] The advancement of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States has encountered new variables. The “Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act” originally had some bipartisan consensus, but now it seems progress may be delayed. Where is the problem? It mainly hinges on two points: first, how to regulate DeFi; second, whether stablecoins can have incentive mechanisms. Traditional banking industry is especially dissatisfied with the latter and is actively opposing it.

In December last year, representatives from both parties held a meeting, and the atmosphere was quite good, showing some hope. But don’t be fooled by the surface optimism; behind the scenes, the banking industry has already been planning—rumor has it they are planning to spend over $100 million to support pro-bank candidates. This money will ultimately flow into political activities during the early 2025 or even mid-2026 elections, with a clear goal: to use political pressure to gain regulatory concessions.

So, this is not just a policy dispute but also a battle of interests. Democrats may extend the negotiation cycle to balance various demands. The prediction market data remains relatively optimistic—there is a 77% chance that the bill will pass before 2027, but when exactly and in what form it will pass is still uncertain.