The three-month decline of Bitcoin: "Quadruple Witching" options expiration triggers intense volatility

2025-12-18 15:40:08

【Crypto World】Someone has compiled a set of data: Bitcoin dropped 16.6%, 8.5%, and 7.9% in March, June, and September respectively. Coincidentally, these declines all occurred during the time windows of large-scale options expirations, known in the industry as “Quadruple Witching.” Whenever a large number of derivative contracts expire simultaneously, market liquidity and prices tend to experience sharp fluctuations. This phenomenon has been observed multiple times and is worth noting for traders.

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ZKProofster

· 2h ago

tbh the "four witches" correlation is just statistical noise dressed up as insight... actually, if you're actually looking at derivatives expiry mechanics, the real vector commitment here is understanding *why* liquidity evaporates—not pattern matching on calendar dates. seen traders get rekt chasing this correlation like it's some mathematical guarantee lmao

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GmGnSleeper

· 12-19 19:23

The theory of quadruple witching day crashing has been around for over a year, but I still can't avoid it.

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BankruptWorker

· 12-18 16:09

Four Witch Day, to put it simply, is just an excuse for the big players to harvest.

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Anon32942

· 12-18 16:04

Brothers are back to harvest the leeks, these four witches' days are just a harvesting machine.

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ChainWatcher

· 12-18 15:59

The four witches' days' theory I've heard for years, and every time it hits the market right on time, there's really something to it. --- So, the big players set the timing to harvest? --- A 16% drop... I was the one caught as the unlucky leek. --- These data points are too coincidental, feeling like armchair strategists after the fact. Avoiding pitfalls in advance next time would be a win. --- No wonder I always go all-in at the wrong times; it turns out these devilish dates are the culprits. --- Honestly, the volatility caused by options expiration is even more intense than policy news. --- Three months in a row hitting the mark, how precise does that calculation need to be? Or is the market just that controllable? --- Wait, if that's the case, should I liquidate my positions before these dates?

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