🔍Market Key Factors Analysis

1. Bearish Factors (Main Pressures)
Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision: The market expects a 99% probability of rate hike today. This move will tighten global liquidity and may trigger short positions in the yen, exerting broad pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin.
On-chain Selling Pressure: Data shows that long-term holders are selling Bitcoin at a rate not seen in the past five years, while market absorption (such as ETF fund inflows) is weakening.
Weak Technical Structure: The price remains in a “fragile” oscillating pattern, with a large amount of trapped positions above.

📊Today’s Key Technical Levels and Trading Framework
Based on current information, here are the key price levels and strategic considerations to watch:

Key Support Levels
Primary Support: $84,000-$85,000.
Significance: This area is a dense trading zone tested multiple times recently. If effectively broken (e.g., 4-hour candlestick closes below it), it could open the way for deeper declines, targeting $80,000 and even $74,423 (year-to-date low).
Secondary Support: Around $86,000.

Key Resistance Levels
Primary Resistance: $88,800-$90,000.
Significance: There is a large accumulation of sell orders in this zone. Any rebound needs to break through this range to reverse the short-term downtrend and test $92,300 (200-day moving average).
Secondary Resistance: $87,900-$89,100.

Potential Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1: Price stabilizes and rebounds in the $84,000-$85,000 zone
Signal to Watch: Clear bullish candlestick patterns (such as long lower shadows, bullish engulfing) appear, with volume increasing.
Strategy: Consider light long positions for short-term trading, with strict stop-loss below $84,000. Target the resistance near $88,800.

Scenario 2: Price effectively breaks below $84,000 support
Signal to Watch: 4-hour chart closes below this level consecutively.
Strategy: Do not rush to “bottom fish.” The downtrend may accelerate. Be patient and wait for signs of stabilization at lower levels (such as around $80,500 or near $74,423) before making moves.

Scenario 3: Price consolidates between $86,000 and $88,000
Signal to Watch: Volatility continues to contract, lacking a clear direction.
Strategy: Stay on the sidelines, waiting for the market to respond clearly to macro events like the Bank of Japan decision before following the breakout direction. #市场触底了吗？ #ETH走势分析