Last night, I stayed up until midnight waiting for the Japanese Central Bank's interest rate hike announcement, repeatedly thinking "Tonight's market must move," and even placed an order at the BTC 81,000 level in advance. But when I opened my eyes in the morning—my order was still there, the market was as flat as a mirror, not even a ripple.

Many traders are probably in the same state, asking themselves: such a major event as a rate hike, and it’s just like this? Does this mean it will be very safe next? Let me burst that bubble—don’t think that way.

As a seasoned player immersed in the crypto market for years, I want to say: the most dangerous thing in the market is not the sudden black swan, but this "slow boiling" process. It may seem calm on the surface, but there are hidden currents beneath.

Why didn’t this rate hike trigger a market explosion? The logic is quite simple. First, the market had already known about it. Since last week, institutions have been quietly adjusting their positions, retail investors have been following suit, and by the time the rate hike actually lands, the market sentiment has already been largely digested. There’s no fresh capital to push the market higher. Second, liquidity itself is tight. Look at BTC fluctuating around 80,000 for several days—both bulls and bears are on the sidelines, unwilling to take heavy positions, so naturally, volatility can’t pick up.

But the key point here is—no volatility doesn’t mean no risk. What I’m most concerned about now are the unspent stablecoin reserves. That’s the real sword hanging over the market. Many people think stablecoins are insignificant, but don’t forget, the US non-farm payroll data just came out with an unexpected result, and the dollar index’s movement directly affects the entire liquidity landscape. The seemingly calm market is actually experiencing a quiet shift in the underlying forces.