#加密市场观察 Yesterday, the rate hike boots landed, and the US stock market and crypto market rebounded. For yesterday, the negative news turned into a positive, and the rebound was normal. But are the negatives really exhausted? Not necessarily. Regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cuts next year, the current expectation for a cut in January is only 24.8%. At the same time, historically, on the day Japan's rate hike is implemented, the market generally does not fall (except at the end of the month). I have always emphasized that after Japan's rate hike, the market tends to delay about a week before falling or hitting a bottom. For example, the last time on 1.23 when the rate hike was implemented, there was a rebound, but a big correction occurred a week later, so risk prevention is still necessary. Some analysts are overly optimistic about Bitcoin hitting 100,000 next week, but that may be too optimistic, as the daily Bollinger upper band is only around 94,150. So, during this period, market opinions are highly divided. Let's first look at the main information for next week:

12.24 (Wednesday): Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes;
12.25 (Thursday): US stock market closed, Trump may announce the next Federal Reserve Chair candidate;
12.26 (Friday): Japan's December CPI.

From purely the information perspective, from Wednesday to Friday next week, the market may experience similar volatility as this week, with both rebounds and dips, making both bulls and bears less comfortable.

Now, let's look at the K-line:

Bitcoin dropped to the 4-hour Bollinger lower band at 84,408 the night before last, then quickly recovered to near the upper band at 89,350 yesterday. The 84,400 level is also the lower band of the 10-day Bollinger (after resetting, it showed a sign of stopping the decline), which marked the week's lowest point. Currently, it is oscillating around 89,350, encountering resistance between the middle and upper bands. All smaller time frame indicators below 1 hour are currently above the zero line, indicating a slight strengthening compared to the past two days.

The main resistance points (short-term short positions) next week are:

89,385/89,515, 90,185, 90,750;
Resistance points after breaking 90,750: 92,250, 93,050, 94,150/94,250.

In the short term, the 12-hour and daily levels show a rebound, with the high points of the rebound around 88,800 and 89,385.

Within the next two weeks, there are two risks: the MACD on the 15-day and 20-day levels will sequentially return to the zero axis. When MACD reaches zero on these levels, it will still retest below 80,000, which could be a bottoming point. We will discuss this further when the time comes.