Bitcoin Slips Below $112K—Can $107.8K Hold the Line?

The Current Landscape

Bitcoin’s recent retreat below the $112,000 mark signals a shift in market dynamics. The selling pressure intensified as BTC fell through $110,000, prompting questions about what comes next. Interestingly, chain data tells a story worth listening to—whale profit-taking near $4 billion, coupled with renewed Coin Days Destroyed activity, suggests sophisticated players are trimming positions. Meanwhile, capital is flowing toward Ethereum, creating a divergence that bears watching.

What On-Chain Metrics Reveal

The MVRV Percentile sitting at 39% paints an interesting picture: the market has stepped back from the elevated risk zones seen weeks prior, landing in neutral territory. This metric offers traders a risk-reward compass when traditional charting feels too noisy.

More critically, the $107.8K level emerges as the weighted average cost basis for short-term holders (those holding 1-3 months). With Bitcoin currently trading around $88.27K based on recent snapshots, this zone has shifted lower but still serves as a psychological anchor. The $112.6K level, previously the cost basis for similar-duration holders, now sits in resistance overhead.

Reading the Signals: A Three-Part Framework

Seasoned traders are combining three metrics to navigate the chop: MVRV Ratio, Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), and realized prices across different holding periods.

The playbook works like this: When MVRV dips below the -1.5 standard deviation band and refuses to reclaim it, caution trumps aggression. Watch the 1-3 month and 3-6 month realized price bands—a swift bounce from these zones signals underlying strength. However, chasing that strength too quickly remains a trap many fall into.

The Entry/Exit Mechanics

The 7-day moving average of STH SOPR acts as a trigger mechanism. When this average dips below 1.0, it signals a reset—holders are underwater or near breakeven. The real opportunity emerges when STH SOPR climbs back above 1.0, indicating holders are returning to profitability and renewed conviction.

For position confidence, look to exchange net outflows during entry windows when all three signals align. This confluence dramatically improves setup quality. A BTC close below the STH band sustained for 2-3 consecutive days invalidates bullish setups entirely.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s technical structure now hinges on whether short-term holders can defend their average entry point. Ethereum’s outperformance (currently up 0.71% over 24 hours versus Bitcoin’s +0.06%) suggests market psychology is rotating. Until Bitcoin reclaims conviction above $112K with genuine volume, traders should remain patient and wait for aligned signals rather than force entries. The risk/reward scales still favor discipline over aggression.