2025 TGE Status: Over 80% of projects have failed, with a median decline of 71%

2025-12-20 15:00:12

Abstract generation in progress

【Crypto World】An institution has tracked and analyzed 118 TGE events in 2025, and the results are quite sobering. Data shows that currently, 84.7% of projects (100 projects) have FDV below their issuance valuation. In other words, nearly 4 out of 5 new tokens are trading below their launch price. The decline is also significant—at the median level, FDV has dropped 71% from the issuance valuation, and in terms of market capitalization, the decline is 67%. Conversely, only 15% of tokens have maintained an upward trend after TGE.

What does this data imply? The token issuance market in 2025 is indeed under considerable pressure. From an investment perspective, participating in TGE requires more cautious evaluation of project fundamentals. Break-evens are not an isolated phenomenon but a widespread issue, which also highlights concerns about valuation bubbles. Of course, the 15% of projects that defy the trend and rise are worth reflecting on—what do they have in common for their success? It may be due to stronger fundamentals, better ecosystem development, or more favorable market timing.

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BlockchainFoodie

· 12-23 06:51

tbh this is giving rotten produce viability chart energy — 84.7% of projects spoiling before they even hit the farmers market... the real question is, can we audit these failed tokenomics with the same rigor we'd use for farm-to-fork verification? that 15% that actually seasoned properly? bet their smart contract recipes had better ingredient sourcing than the rest

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gas_fee_therapist

· 12-21 07:21

Fall below the issue price 84%, this TGE market is really bad, luckily I didn't blindly chase. --- 71% fall? This data is exhausting to look at, how can there still be people daring to all in new projects. --- What’s the background of that 15% reversing project, can we buy the dip, everyone? --- Year after year, TGE has never been good, it feels like the whole market is gambling. --- FDV 50% Slump or more, buying is not getting coins but doing charity, haha. --- Is there anyone deeply investigating that 15% project, there must be something hidden that we don't know. --- Every time I see such data, I’m glad I didn't get on board, really escaped a disaster. --- With such a serious fall below the issue price, the project party should reflect, the quality is concerning. --- Wait, is this 71% calculated from the issuance price or FDV, details are very important. --- I knew it would be like this long ago, having the insight to choose projects is more important than anything, greed will explode.

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GasWastingMaximalist

· 12-20 15:30

Breaking below 84.7%? That number is truly incredible, feeling like a gambler's playground --- The 15% that survive, I bet their luck plays a big role too --- FDV down 71%, investors deserve to be cautious, it should have been like this a long time ago --- Really, every time gets cut, when will I learn my lesson --- Fundamentals? Timing? Ha, these two words are just nonsense in the crypto world --- Wait, does this mean the next bull market will be even more intense? --- With so many breakouts, it shows that people entering the market are still too greedy

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ServantOfSatoshi

· 12-20 15:29

Breaking below by 84.7%? Damn, this data is terrifying. It feels like this year's TGE is just a slaughterhouse.

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ImpermanentLossFan

· 12-20 15:20

This data is really incredible, with 84.7% breaking below the issuance price... Does anyone still dare to invest? --- FDV has dropped 71% median, I have to say, good grief --- Those 15% projects that defy the trend must have some tricks, but finding them is harder than climbing to the sky --- Is it another割韭菜season? I think we should see what kind of projects those are that broke below the issuance price --- Oh my, such serious breaking below the price, and still talking about cautious assessment... Just don't touch them, isn't that better? --- So, this market is just gambling; both fundamentals and market timing variables need to be right --- 84.7% is really terrifying, it feels like investing in TGE has become a contrarian indicator --- Is the 15% that rose against the trend insider information that was known beforehand? --- It was about time for this to happen, let these bad projects break below the price, so the market can be cleaned up --- Median dropped 71%... I lost all my expected returns from last year, TM

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FomoAnxiety

· 12-20 15:00

Such a high break-even failure rate, and people still dare to take the plunge?

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