US Supreme Court Trump Tariff 'Illegality' Ruling Possibility 71%... Bitcoin 'Relief Rally' Expected

Source: BlockMedia Original Title: U.S. Supreme Court Trump Tariffs “Likely Unlawful” Ruling 71%… Will Bitcoin Experience a ‘Relief Rally’? Original Link: https://www.blockmedia.co.kr/archives/1022943 The core economic policy of the Trump administration, the ‘Universal Reciprocal Tariffs,’ has reached a critical point. Prediction markets are estimating over a 70% chance that the U.S. Supreme Court will rule Trump’s tariffs as “unlawful.” Market watchers are paying close attention to whether this ruling will trigger a strong ‘short squeeze’ and ‘relief rally’ in risk asset markets, including Bitcoin.

Supreme Court “29% Chance to Side with Trump”

On the 20th(local time), according to the world’s largest prediction market, the probability that “the U.S. Supreme Court will rule favorably for Trump on tariffs” was only 29%. This means there is a 71% chance that the court will find the tariffs to be unlawful.

This betting figure has plummeted sharply since just after the Supreme Court’s hearing in early November. At that time, even conservative justices expressed deep doubts about whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)(which grants the president unlimited authority to impose tariffs).

Nightmare Reenactment vs. Opportunity for Reversal

The market still remembers the trauma of October. When President Trump announced additional tariffs on China and his intention to enforce universal tariffs, both the New York stock market and the cryptocurrency market plunged simultaneously, facing downward pressure. Tariffs are considered a major factor fueling inflation and disrupting the Federal Reserve’s(Fed) interest rate cut trajectory.

If the Supreme Court confirms the lower court’s ruling and declares the tariffs unconstitutional or unlawful, market scenarios will change dramatically.

With inflation concerns eased and trade war risks resolved, strong capital inflows into Bitcoin and risk assets are expected. This could especially serve as a catalyst for an ‘relief rally’ in the digital asset market, which has been suppressed by policy uncertainty.

Trump Administration Prepares “Plan B”… Uncertainty Remains

Of course, optimism is not universal. The Trump administration has warned that if they lose at the Supreme Court, they will immediately consider a ‘Plan B’ involving tariffs using laws such as the ‘Trade Act 301’ or ‘Section 232,’ instead of IEEPA.

Major investment banks have analyzed that “while a Supreme Court ruling does not mean the end of tariffs, it will put a brake on the president’s unilateral tariff actions,” and that “this could act as a short-term positive catalyst for the market.”

“As Early as This Year, No Later Than January”… Fast-Track Hearing Ongoing

The oral arguments concluded on November 5th, and a ruling is imminent. Typically, Supreme Court rulings take several months, but in this case, a ‘fast-track’(expedited hearing) has been applied considering the economic impact.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary recently mentioned in an interview that “we expect the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling to come out in January.” Some legal experts believe the court will make a decision right after the year-end holiday season or in early January.