#数字资产市场洞察 $BTC $ETH $SUI

[The Federal Reserve's 9-3 split, this round of interest rate cuts is destined to be a fleeting moment]

The resolution on December 10 completely tore apart the Federal Reserve: 9 votes in favor of a 25bp rate cut, while 3 hawkish representatives (Bowman, Cook, Waller) voted against it. Powell's statement "the risks to employment are greater" was quite decisive, but from the dot plot, the entire committee's forecast for future interest rates shows a divergence of 170bp - the most divided situation since 2005.

The market was indeed hyped at that time. Bitcoin broke through 110,000, gold surged, the dollar index fell in response, and the RMB appreciated. The gold ETF attracted 1.4 billion in a single day. But then the problem arose—non-farm payroll data was revised down by 818,000, while core PCE rebounded, and the hawkish complaints of "we came too early" were incessant. Coupled with Trump’s three tweets applying pressure, the entire decision-making process seemed more like a political compromise rather than economic rationality.

The hidden dangers behind the carnival are spreading. Inflation expectations are quietly rising, with the swap market betting that the PCE will soar to 2.6% by 2026. Private equity leverage has surged, credit bubbles are expanding, and commercial real estate defaults have reached a nearly ten-year high. On the Chinese side, the interest rate spread is narrowing, and significant northbound capital is pouring in, yet the A-shares still open high and close low—just like receiving a "sentiment consolation."

Speaking of ordinary people. Mortgage rates have indeed dropped, but housing prices have risen even more sharply, with 62% of first-time homebuyers still unable to afford a home. AI giants are monopolizing capital, while credit for small businesses is frozen.

In 49 days, there will be another FOMC meeting, by then Powell's ammunition will be almost exhausted. He silently said, "Just do the right thing in the moment," but the market has already seen through it: the interest rate cutting cycle may be nearing its end, and the next black swan is lurking in the shadows.