BTC historical allocation wave: 1.4 million coins concentrated sell-off over three years, while institutions are quietly building a position.

[Chain News] There is a phenomenon worth following: From March 2024 to November this year, long-term holders (LTH) have sold approximately 1.4 million BTC, amounting to as high as $12.117 billion. This wave of selling is divided into three phases.

The first wave occurred from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024, when the spot ETF was just approved, and BTC surged from $25,000 to $73,000. A group of OG investors began to reduce their positions. The second wave was at the end of 2024, after Trump was elected, and BTC shot up to $100,000, with another large batch of people choosing to take profits. Now we are in the third wave, with BTC hovering above $100,000, and holders are still continuously selling.

This is completely different from before. In the bull markets of 2013, 2017, and 2021, investors usually concentrated their allocations at once. But now? It's spread out over several waves, dragging on for about two years; this situation has never occurred in the past. What's even more exaggerated is that the BTC that has not moved for over two years has decreased by 1.6 million since early last year, equivalent to $14 billion in funds moving.

But coins have two sides. What are institutions doing behind these sell-offs? From the perspective of price and time, there are three time windows worth noting: Short term ( in the next 3-6 months ) may oscillate repeatedly in the range of $87,000 to $95,000, with institutions taking the opportunity to continue building positions; Mid-term ( in the first half of 2026 ) driven by both policy and institutions, the target is aimed at $120,000 to $150,000; Long-term ( in the second half of 2026 ) volatility will increase, depending on whether the election results and policies can be sustained.