#BTC资金流动性 The Bank of Japan raised interest rates again on the 19th, and Bitcoin has been repeatedly pumped around 86K. Should we catch a falling knife now? There are all kinds of opinions. I don't have a crystal ball, but if you look back at historical data, you'll find some patterns.

Let's take a look at what happened to Bitcoin after each interest rate hike in Japan over the past three years:

• In March 2024, it directly dropped by 23%-27%, and it took a full 6 weeks.

• Interest rates increased more sharply in July, with a drop of 26%-30%, coinciding with the flash crash on August 5th, and it took 8 weeks to settle down.

• Another drop happened this January, this time by 31%, also following a 7-week cycle.

• Roughly calculated, the average decline is about 27%, with cycles generally around 7 weeks.

Following this pattern, there may be three possible scenarios this time:

• Worst-case scenario: drop to 70K (down 19% from 86K), rebound by the end of January next year.

• Intermediate state: Stuck at 75K (down 13%), almost bottoming out by mid-January.

• Best case scenario: stabilize around 80K (only drop 7%), and it will be done in two to three weeks.

But will this time break the pattern? There are two forces in conflict:

On one side are three factors that could change the situation - Ueda's subsequent guidance on interest rate hikes for next year (which is the real time bomb), the year-end liquidity tightening period where institutions are locking in positions for the new year, and the potential violent fluctuations caused by the expiration of trillion-dollar options on the U.S. triple witching day.

On the other hand, there are three reasons explaining that the risk is still present. This is why history gives you three options to choose from:

• First, don't try to catch a falling knife on the day of the interest rate hike. It has always been like this in the past; the positions taken that day were all trapped in the following weeks.

• The second point is to focus on the window of 6 to 8 weeks. The true bottom often does not occur at the moment of interest rate hike, but rather appears in the 6th to 8th week afterwards.

• The third point is to observe where the money from the ETF flows. A true signal that institutions have started accumulating positions is a net inflow for three consecutive days, which is more honest than candlestick charts.

I won't tell you whether to buy or sell, that's your own business. What I want to say is: history never completely repeats itself, but it often bears a striking resemblance. When everyone is pondering whether this time will be different, the market often answers you in the coldest way—most of the time, it's the same old routine.

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