#美国宏观经济数据区块链化 ETH golden cross pattern trap: Why you shouldn't chase at 3100

Hello everyone, I am A Liang. Yesterday I saw ETH fluctuating around 3030, and the MACD golden cross pattern appeared on the 1-hour chart. Many people were envious - the technical indicators flashed a buy signal, and it felt like an opportunity had come. But I want to say something honest: don't rush to get in.

To put it bluntly, this kind of golden cross pattern is often a trap set by the big players. On the surface, it seems like the bulls are about to take off, but in reality, when retail investors rush in, they end up getting trapped.

**The Federal Reserve's shoe is still in the air**

Recently, the Federal Reserve has begun to make hawkish statements again. FOMC members indicate that interest rates need to be maintained at a high level for a long time, and there is no turnaround in the inflation issue. For high-risk assets like ETH, this news is like a sword hanging over their heads — a long-term high interest rate environment is simply not suitable for significant increases, with a lot of short-term volatility and no logical support for a big surge.

**The technical aspect looks good, but it's actually very hollow**

Although there is a golden cross pattern, a closer look reveals something is off:
- The energy pillar is shrinking, and the upward momentum is clearly insufficient, relying on market sentiment to hold up.
- The 3100 level is too tough to break through, unless a significant positive factor emerges.
- The daily and weekly charts have already given sell signals, and the short-term bullish trend is just a flash in the pan.

The most heartbreaking thing is that the capital flow shows that the big players are pushing prices up while secretly withdrawing, yet retail investors are still following the trend. This trick is too old.

**How will the market move in the future**

ETH is having a hard time staying above 3050. The most likely scenario is a bounce back to between 3080-3100, but then it will lose momentum and drop down. If it breaks below the 3000 support, the next stop will be 2930.

**How to operate to avoid losses**

- Don't move above 3050, even if you miss the rebound, it's better than being trapped. It's better to stay in cash and watch.
- If you must short, build your position in batches in the 3080-3100 range, set a stop loss at 3120, and aim for a target of 3000 or even 2930.
- For mid-to-long term players looking for bargains, you can wait to enter around 2930. Don't be greedy, and set a good stop loss.

**Last words**

High interest rates and technical divergence make it easy for flash crashes to occur. With such frequent market fluctuations, don't let short-term ups and downs dictate your pace. Rationality comes first; risk control is always more important than chasing after gains.

$ETH