#美联储回购协议计划 CME's latest data shows that the market pricing for a Fed rate cut in January has plummeted dramatically—from around 30% last week to 19.9%, with a speed of decline that can only be described as exaggerated. What does this indicate? The market has now fully digested that the Fed is highly likely to remain on hold in January, and even the March meeting has become a gamble: 50% of participants are betting on holding the interest rate steady, while the other 50% are betting on a 25 basis point cut, resulting in a completely even split.

My judgment is straightforward - the short-term outlook is indeed bearish, but long-term opportunities are taking shape.

First, let's look at the logic behind the short-term plummet. The postponement of interest rate cuts means that the market will not see that influx of "cheap funds" in the short term, facing liquidity tightening. This time of year is particularly sensitive, as European and American institutions are on holiday, and the market itself is already lacking liquidity. Any slight disturbance can easily lead to a sharp fall. What is the most dangerous thing during this phase? High-leverage bulls being directly washed out. Volatility surges and spikes occur frequently, and a single slippage on a stop-loss can send someone into liquidation hell.

So how to play specifically? Scoring strategy execution.

Those holding high leverage positions must take action immediately. With the news environment being so sensitive and the volatility so fierce, there’s no need to gamble on that slight market rebound. Reducing positions is the most rational choice at this stage—surviving is more important than anything else.

If you still have some resources on hand, this is the time to sharpen your tools. Keep a close eye on the key support levels of Bitcoin, and when the market falls into panic, gradually accumulate positions at low prices. Past experiences tell us that the best layout opportunities often arise in the darkest moments. Short-term panic is the hunting ground for long-term players.

Those holding spot positions must not be scared out of the market. This may sound like a motivational saying, but the fact is — liquidity at the macro level is slowly being released, and the chances of improvement next year are far greater than continued tightness. The biggest mistake in a bull market is frequently "selling high and buying low." Honestly, it’s really difficult to get back in after selling. Most of those who think they are smart by selling high end up missing out. The most heart-wrenching four words in a bull market are "can’t get back in."

Essentially, the Fed is playing a game of expectation management, and what the market is actually speculating on is the expectation difference. The cooling of interest rate cut expectations merely converts "instant euphoria" into "delayed gratification." For those who truly understand the market, this instead presents a valuable layout window—short-term volatility is not frightening; what is frightening is being scared into giving up long-term plans. Hold what should be held, wait for what should be waited for; time will prove everything.

Where are the technical defensive levels of $BTC and $ETH under the current macro expectation framework, and which tracks are most likely to start first next year? These questions are worth in-depth analysis. Every market cycle has its internal logic; as long as you find that logic, trading becomes a game of probability rather than gambling. Do your homework, be well-prepared, wait for the right moment, and the ultimate winners will surely be those with a steady mindset and strong execution.