Market Sentiment (CMC Fear & Greed Index): 29/100 → Fear Zone

The market has exited Extreme Fear, but the recovery remains primarily psychological, not yet a genuine confidence reversal.

30-Day Trend Overview

The Fear & Greed Index plunged into Extreme Fear (~10) in late November.

Throughout December, the index has gradually recovered, consistently forming higher lows.

No emotional spikes were observed → the rebound is orderly and non-FOMO-driven.

Market state: emotional cooldown phase + gradual confidence rebuilding.

FnG Structural Breakdown (CMC Framework)

Price Momentum – Trend Strength

BTC price action remains range-bound, with only a weak rebound after the sharp sell-off.

Upswings have failed to push FnG above 40, signaling a lack of aggressive spot demand.

Implication: Price momentum is insufficient to trigger Greed.

Volatility – Expected Price Swings

Late November: extreme volatility, driven by panic selling.

December: volatility has steadily compressed; whipsaws have declined materially.

Implication: Panic has faded, but volatility contraction alone has not produced bullish enthusiasm.

Derivatives – Leverage & Risk Appetite (inferred via FnG behavior)

Slow, muted FnG recovery → leverage has not meaningfully returned.

No signs of an overconfidence bounce.

Implication: Derivatives market remains risk-off / defensive.

Market Composition – Dominance & Capital Allocation

From Extreme Fear to current Fear, FnG has failed to exceed 30–35.

Historically associated with high BTC dominance and capital preservation behavior.

Implication: Altcoins struggle to establish trends; capital favors safety.

Social & Search Trends – Crowd Psychology

FnG recovery without vertical spikes → no FOMO.

Prevailing mindset: “less fear, but still no conviction.”

Implication: Social sentiment remains neutral to mildly negative.

Behavioral Psychology Analysis

Short-Term Participants

Forced selling pressure has largely disappeared.

Trading behavior is small-size, short-duration, with capital protection prioritized.

Weak altcoins and broken narratives are actively avoided.

Long-Term Investors

Selective re-accumulation has begun.

Preference for BTC, ETH, and large-cap assets.

Market is viewed as “controlled fear”, not systemic panic.

Summary

Fear & Greed Index (Dec 23, 2025): 29 → Fear

The market has passed the emotional bottom, but has not yet entered a Greed phase.

This period represents psychological accumulation, which often precedes the formation of a medium-term trend.

Influence Weighting

Price Momentum: 85%

Volatility: 75%

Derivatives: 65%

Market Composition: 60%

Social Trends: 50%

Short-Term Outlook (FnG-Based)

FnG holding 25–30 and continuing to form higher lows → gradual stabilization.

FnG reclaiming 40+ → confirmation of genuine sentiment recovery.

FnG falling below 20 → renewed panic risk; strong defensive posture required.