Geopolitical risks push up crude oil and gold, strengthening commodities in the global futures market.

Source: BlockMedia Original Title: [This Moment Global Futures] Geopolitical Risks Cause Surge in Crude Oil and Gold… Orange Juice Soars 10%, Dollar Weakens Original Link: https://www.blockmedia.co.kr/archives/1023646

Market Overview

Against the backdrop of renewed geopolitical tensions, the global futures market has seen a strong performance in commodities, primarily oil and gold. The dollar has weakened, U.S. stock index futures continue to rise, and there is a recovery in the risk appetite for assets.

Crude Oil Surge: Supply Concerns Resurface

International oil prices reflect the geopolitical risk premium, with significant increases. West Texas Intermediate ( WTI ) rose by 2.58%, Brent crude oil rose by 2.63%, gasoline ( RBOB ) rose by 2.05%, and heating oil rose by 1.65%.

The market is concerned about the United States strengthening the enforcement of sanctions against a certain country, as well as potential disruptions in energy transportation in the Black Sea region. Although this country's crude oil accounts for a small proportion of global supply, the psychological impact could expand once the risk of sanctions materializes.

Precious Metals Hit New Highs: A Combination of Safe Haven and Rate Cut Expectations

The precious metals market is seeing a strong influx of buyers. Gold is up 2.13%, reflecting a preference for safe-haven assets once again; silver is up 2.35%. Platinum surged by 6.24%, and palladium surged by 4.01%, with industrial precious metals rising across the board.

The weakening of the dollar combined with the decline in U.S. Treasury yields has increased the investment appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. The defensive demand for investment portfolios at the end of the year also supports gold prices.

Soft commodity volatility expands: Orange juice soars 10%

The volatility of agricultural products and soft commodities has明显扩大. Orange juice futures soared by 10.45%, the largest increase, driven by concerns over supply disruptions combined with seasonal factors that triggered speculative buying.

Coffee rose by 2.22%, and sugar increased by 1.22%, showing strong performance. Timber fell by 2.33%, indicating profit-taking. Cocoa has limited gains, with significant differentiation among varieties.

The grain market is overall presenting a mixed trend. Soybeans fell by 0.09%, corn decreased by 0.06%, and oats dropped by 0.42%. Wheat and some derivative grains are fluctuating within a stable range. The decrease in trading volume at the end of the year and the cautious outlook on supply are limiting the upward price potential.

Livestock futures are relatively stable. Live cattle rose by 0.26%, feeder cattle rose by 0.38%, and lean hogs rose by 1.01%, showing strong performance.

US stock index futures rise, volatility index falls

U.S. stock index futures continue to rise. The S&P 500 index futures are up 0.62%, the Nasdaq 100 is up 0.49%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.44%. The Russell 2000 index, which is focused on small and mid-cap stocks, is up 1.08%, showing relatively strong performance. The volatility index (VIX) has dropped by 3.13%, easing short-term market tensions.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board. The yields on 2-year to 10-year bonds dropped by 0.04 to 0.11 percentage points, indicating that expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates are still being maintained.

The US dollar weakens, major currencies strengthen

The exchange rate market continues to show weakness in the US dollar. The US dollar index fell by 0.33%, while the euro and the yen each rose by 0.31%. The British pound increased by 0.52%, the Australian dollar by 0.59%, and the New Zealand dollar by 0.51%, highlighting the strength of risk asset currencies.

Bitcoin rose by 0.58%, in sync with the weakening of the US dollar and the rebound in risk asset preferences.

Overall Outlook

In the global futures market under geopolitical risks, crude oil and gold play a core role, leading to a comprehensive strengthening of commodities. Although trading volume has decreased at the end of the year, the combination of geopolitical variables and monetary policy expectations may sustain volatility among asset classes in the short term.